GBP/USD falls as US Dollar gathers strength ahead of Fed interest rate decision

• The Greenback broadens ahead of the last interest rate decision with Powell as Fed Chair.
• UAE leaving OPEC not short-term solution for Oil supply as WTI climbs near $104 again.
• White House officials say US President Trump expecting long-term blockade of Hormuz.

The GBP/USD pair fell toward the 1.3480 price region on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) continued to gain strength ahead of the last Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision led by Chair Jerome Powell. The broader strength of the Greenback is also aided by the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) exit from OPEC, which is reviving safe-haven demand.

United States (US) President Donald Trump posted at 2:00am EST on Truth Social, “Iran can’t get their act together. They don’t know how to sign a non-nuclear deal. They'd better get smart soon.” Later, a White House Official declared that US President Trump and various oil companies discussed steps to continue the Strait of Hormuz blockade for months if needed.

In British politics, lawmakers voted against initiating an inquiry into whether Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer misled Parliament regarding his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the US.

Mr. Mandelson was dismissed from the role last September after it was revealed that his connections to Jeffrey Epstein were more extensive than previously known. The Prime Minister criticized the vote, describing it as a political stunt by the Conservative Party aimed at influencing voters before the local and regional elections on May 7.

The energy problem persists as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it was quitting OPEC, dealing a blow to the oil producers' group, amid an unprecedented energy crisis caused by the Iran war, which exposes discord among Gulf nations.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) control over global oil supplies has been severely affected by the UAE's exit, widening a rift between the UAE and its neighbor, Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3488, keeping a mildly bearish near-term tone as it sits just above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3487 but below the 20-period SMA at 1.3521. The cluster of nearby resistances overhead leaves the pair capped in the short term, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 hints at weak upside momentum and suggests rallies could continue to struggle against supply.

On the topside, initial resistance is at 1.3495, followed by 1.3505 and 1.3514, before the 20-period SMA at 1.3521 becomes a stronger barrier. On the downside, immediate support is aligned around the current area, with the 100-period SMA at 1.3487 backing a horizontal floor at 1.3483; a clear break below this zone would expose lower levels in the broader consolidation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)