EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1850 with holidays keeping trade muted
- EUR/USD edges lower amid muted trade due to the US Presidents’ Day and China’s New Year holidays.
- US Dollar may weaken after softer January CPI strengthened expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year.
- The Euro may gain support as the ECB appears largely unconcerned about its recent appreciation.
EUR/USD opens the week on a softer note, trading near 1.1860 during the Asian session on Monday. Activity is likely to remain muted, with United States (US) markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, while Mainland China is also shut for the week-long Lunar New Year break.
Losses in the EUR/USD pair may be limited as the US Dollar (USD) could ease following softer January Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut rates later this year.
US CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) in January, slowing from 2.7% in December and coming in below the 2.5% forecast. On a monthly basis, consumer inflation moderated to 0.2%, down from 0.3% previously and under market expectations of 0.3%.
Moreover, recent data showed that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by the most in over a year, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly declined, pointing to a stabilizing labor market. Markets widely expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in March before delivering two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now assign nearly a 90% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its March meeting, up from 81% a week earlier. Markets are pricing in roughly two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year, with the first move seen in June at around a 52% probability.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) found support amid signals that the European Central Bank (ECB) remains largely unconcerned about the currency’s recent appreciation. ECB President Christine Lagarde, who stated that the euro area’s inflation outlook is in a “good place,” cautioned against overreacting to short-term or volatile data.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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