NZD/USD inches lower after reaching six-month high of 0.6000
- NZD/USD loses ground as the US Dollar steadies ahead of the Fed policy announcement.
- The USD may come under pressure as political uncertainty grows over a partial US government shutdown.
- The hotter inflation data strengthened expectations of a possible RBNZ rate hike later this year.
NZD/USD halts its seven-day winning streak, trading around 0.5970 during the early European hours on Tuesday. The currency pair holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) steadies amid market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcement.
However, the US Dollar (USD) could face challenges as political uncertainty rises over the US government's partial shutdown. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to oppose a funding package that includes appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security, leaving Congress facing a January 30 deadline to avert a shutdown.
Traders may also turn cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed). US President Donald Trump said last week he would soon announce his nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, fueling speculation that the next chair could favor faster interest rate cuts.
Statistics New Zealand said last week that annual consumer inflation picked up to 3.1% in Q4, exceeding the central bank’s target band. The stronger-than-expected inflation print reinforced market expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may raise interest rates later this year.
Traders await New Zealand’s trade data for December due Wednesday, with forecasts pointing to a subdued balance. Traders also adopt caution as China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, is set to release 2025 industrial profit figures, following muted January–November growth of just 0.1% and a sharp November decline.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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