USD/CHF steady as Fed rate-cut expectations, Swiss data weigh

• Fed rate-cut expectations hold near 85%, keeping the US Dollar under pressure.
• Weekly jobless claims remain resilient, but broader labor-market signals continue to soften gradually.
• Thin liquidity due to Thanksgiving and Swiss data in focus ahead of Q3 GDP and KOF Leading Indicator.

USD/CHF trades around 0.8050 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually inchandeg for the day. The pair nevertheless remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens broadly, weighed down by growing market conviction that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is on track to deliver another rate cut next month.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign roughly an 85% chance to a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting. This trend continues despite the publication of generally solid US data. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 22 rose to 216,000, below the expected 225,000, confirming a degree of labor-market resilience. At the same time, Continuing Claims increased slightly from 1.95 million to 1.96 million, signaling a gradual cooling that markets have already factored in.

Durable Goods Orders released on Wednesday also surprised to the upside, but this did little to alter the dominant perception, particularly amid speculation that Kevin Hassett, widely viewed as dovish, could replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair after his term ends in May.

Market liquidity is especially thin on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States (US), limiting volatility across US assets and reinforcing policy-expectation-driven moves. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady near 99.57 at the time of writing, unable to benefit from the stronger data.

Conversely, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is broadly expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.00% potentially through 2027, according to several analysts. A policy divergence that further supports downward pressure on USD/CHF.

In Switzerland, traders are now awaiting two key data releases on Friday: third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the KOF Leading Indicator, both of which may provide additional insight into the country’s economic trajectory. Until then, USD/CHF continues to trade in an environment structurally unfavorable to the US Dollar, dominated by Fed rate-cut expectations.