USD/JPY rise slows amid growing intervention talk – OCBC

The recent rise in USD/JPY continues to slow. Japan’s growth minister Minoru Kiuchi said the government is watching currency movements, including speculative activity, with a high sense of urgency. Pair was last seen at 156.30 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Japanese officials monitor Yen depreciation closely

"Last Friday, Finance Minister Katayama told a news conference that officials are concerned that JPY depreciation is extremely one-sided and rapid. Intervention rhetoric is getting louder and more frequent. We believe the risk on leaning against the wind is real if we do see another sharp weakening in the JPY towards the 158-160 zone."

"But for USD/JPY to reverse trend and trade lower meaningfully would require policymakers to demonstrate fiscal discipline to restore credibility while the BOJ also need to resume policy normalisation. A softer USD should also help. Leaning against the wind activity is not likely to reverse the JPY’s broader depreciation trend though it may moderate the pace of decline."

"Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell from overbought conditions. Support at 154.40/50 levels (21 DMA, 76.4% fibo), 151.60 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low, 50 DMA). Resistance at 158, 158.87 (previous high in 2025) and 160 levels."