USD/CAD steadies near 1.4010 as US government shutdown ends
- USD/CAD moves little after Trump signed the government funding bill to end the shutdown on Thursday.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned that loosening monetary policy prematurely could “feed the inflation beast.”
- Canadian Dollar may regain ground as the BoC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026.
USD/CAD halts its four-day losing streak, remaining flat and trading around 1.4010 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair may gain ground as the US Dollar (USD) could further appreciate amid improving sentiment, driven by the end of the United States (US) government shutdown.
Reuters reported that US President Donald Trump signed the government funding bill on Thursday, marking the official end of the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill requires the Government to resume normal operations and calls for direct payment for individuals to purchase healthcare.
Additionally, the US Dollar may also gain support from hawkish Fedspeak, which decreased the odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in nearly a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, down from 67% a day ago.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic addressed economic trends at the Atlanta Economic Club on Wednesday. Bostic cautioned that easing policy too soon could “feed the inflation beast,” while noting that a sharp downturn in the labor market is unlikely in the near term.
The downside of the USD/CAD pair could be restrained as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) may gain on a cautious tone surrounding the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy outlook. Rate markets expect the BoC to keep interest rates unchanged at least through the end of 2026, though that could change if economic conditions worsen.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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