CAD: Budget might give some help to CAD – ING

It’s worth monitoring Canada’s budget announcement today, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

USD/CAD to hover around 1.40 for most of November

"A mix of fiscally expansionary measures to support a tariff-hit economy are widely expected. The bar for debt sustainability concerns to hit CAD is elevated, so bold fiscal spending moves should be positive for CAD as the risks of more Bank of Canada cuts decrease."

"But the focus should anyway stay on data. If inflation figures undershoot, the case for another cut in early 2026 (our baseline) should be compelling. On Friday, Canada also releases jobs figures for October. All the focus will be on the unemployment rate, where further increases from the current 7.1% should also fuel dovish bets."

"We expect USD/CAD to hover around 1.40 for most of November, then turn lower in December as the USD weakens."