USD/JPY: Interim upside risks – OCBC

USD/JPY continued to trade higher post-parliament vote but the move higher was also driven by the broad rebound in USD, instead of just policy uncertainty. Pair was last at 152.59 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias

"New Minister of Finance Katayama had previously expressed concerns about the weak JPY. In an earlier interview in March, she said that the JPY should be about 120-130. She also floated the idea of providing tax incentives for individuals to invest in domestic equities rather than abroad."

"We believe if fiscal prudence is pursued, then the new government should be reassuring for markets and JPY. This move in USD/JPY is likely more driven by USD leg. Given some political clarity, we still see room for BoJ to hike on 30 Oct as macro conditions allow for policy normalisation."

"Daily momentum is not showing a clear bias though RSI rose. Slight risk to the upside in the interim. Resistance here at 153.40 levels. Support at 151.90 (23.6% fibo retracement of the run-up), 150.35/50 levels (50% fibo, 21 DMA)."