EUR/USD holds near 1.1650 as trade hopes support US Dollar

• EUR/USD trades steady near 1.1650 as the US Dollar holds firm amid hopes of easing US-China trade tensions.
• US-China officials set to meet in Malaysia this week to resume trade talks after last week’s tariff flare-up.
• Trump warns on Monday that 155% tariffs could take effect November 1 if no deal is reached.

The Euro (EUR) trades under modest pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as the Greenback holds steady amid hopes of easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading flat above 1.1650. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is hovering around 98.50 after Friday’s rebound from two-week lows.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel struck a cautious tone on Monday, warning in a speech titled “How to Revive Growth in Europe” that the Eurozone has “fallen behind in the digital revolution,” with productivity per hour stagnating compared to the United States (US).

She highlighted that Europe’s competitiveness is under threat, pointing to rising energy costs and shrinking export market shares relative to China and the US. According to Schnabel, addressing these structural weaknesses will be crucial to reviving long-term growth and ensuring monetary policy remains effective.

On the US side, attention is firmly on the resumption of US-China trade talks, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng set to meet in Malaysia this week to restart dialogue after last week’s tariff flare-up. While the easing of tensions has brought some short-term relief to risk sentiment, traders remain cautious as US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade rhetoric continues to inject uncertainty into global markets. Trump said on Monday that “potential 155% tariffs come November 1 unless we make a deal,” keeping investors wary of further escalations.

At the same time, a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook and the ongoing US government shutdown are limiting the Dollar’s upside momentum. The political impasse in Washington has now entered its third week, with Congress set to vote for the 11th time on a short-term funding bill aimed at reopening the government. White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC on Monday that he expects the shutdown to end “sometime this week.”