USD/JPY might weaken to 145.85 – UOB Group

Strong downward momentum may lead to further US Dollar (USD) weakness, possibly toward 145.85. In the longer run, sharp increase in short-term downward momentum suggests USD could weaken to 145.85, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Strong downward momentum may lead to further USD weakness

24-HOUR VIEW: "USD traded in a relatively tight range of 147.21/147.76 two days ago. Yesterday, we were of the view that USD 'is likely to trade in a range between 147.00 and 147.60.' We did not expect the expansion in volatility, as USD rose to a high of 147.53 before plummeting to a low of 146.26. Strong downward momentum may lead to further USD weakness, possibly toward 145.85. Note that there is another support level at 146.20. To sustain the downward momentum, USD must not break above 146.90, with minor resistance at 146.60."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected USD to trade in a range since early last week. In our most recent narrative from last Friday (12 Sep, spot at 147.25), we stated that “we continue to expect range-trading, but a narrower range of 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.” Yesterday, USD fell sharply to a low of 146.26. Although 146.20 has not been broken yet, the sharp increase in short-term downward momentum suggests USD could weaken to 145.85. If USD were to break below this level, it could potentially trigger a sharp drop. We will maintain our view as long as USD holds below 147.35."