GBP/USD: Seasonals bullish in April – SocGen

April seasonality is typically bullish Sterling (GBP), economists at  Société Générale say.

Seasonality in April is typically bearish EUR/GBP

Sterling retraced against the Dollar and the Euro after two of the nine-member MPC committee threw in the towel on rate hikes and voted with the majority for no change. The shift could prove a watershed and opens the door to a rate cut in the coming months. 

The pullback in GBP/USD attracted buyers right on the 200-DMA (1.2591). This could be the prelude to a rally back over 1.2800 towards 1.3000 if seasonality is a guide. April ranks among the best months of the year for the Pound thanks to the repatriation by corporates of overseas FX for dividend payments. The average percentage monthly gain of the last ten years in April is 0.8%. The standard deviation is 2.2%. 

Seasonality in April is also typically bearish EUR/GBP.