UBS lifts its S&P 500 price target to 5,900, doesn't rule out a move to 6,500

UBS lifted its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 5,900, citing a supportive environment for U.S. equities.

The Swiss investment firm also set a mid-2025 target of 6,200 for the index, reflecting optimism about the market's prospects.

The latest call is based on several key factors, including solid earnings growth, disinflation, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment.

"The market P/E is high, but reasonable in the context of the favorable macro environment," UBS strategists said in a note.

UBS forecasts an 11% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2024, translating to $250 per share, and has increased its growth rate estimate to 8% for 2025, amounting to $270 per share.

This broadening earnings growth is seen as a primary driver for the revised targets. The brokerage firm acknowledges the market's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is high but considers it reasonable given the favorable macroeconomic conditions.

The backdrop for U.S. stocks is described as constructive, with the investment climate benefiting from ongoing disinflationary trends.

Moreover, the expectation of the Federal Reserve pivoting towards rate cuts is viewed as a positive influence on equity markets.

"We expect two rate cuts in 2024, with the first one in September."

The surge in AI investment is highlighted as a significant factor contributing to the positive outlook for U.S. equities. 

All in all, UBS is not ruling out a move above 6,000 if the macro backdrop remains supportive.

"While not our base case, we also think investors should be open to the upside possibility that valuations move even higher. The Fed will likely be cutting rates into an investment/innovation boom which could further stoke animal spirits.

"In this scenario, an upside target of 6,500 by year- end is not out of the question," UBS concluded.