WTI flat lines around $83.25 area, downside seems limited amid positive demand outlook
■ WTI consolidates in a narrow range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.
■ Easing geopolitical risks acts as a headwind, though improving demand outlook lends support.
■ Traders look to US Durable Goods Orders and the official US inventory data for a fresh impetus.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices struggle to build on the overnight bounce from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support near the $80.75 area and oscillate in a range during the Asian session on Wednesday. The commodity currently trades around the $83.25 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.
Concerns about a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased after Iran signaled that it has no plans to retaliate against the Israeli limited-scale missile strike. This reduces the risk premium from markets and acts as a headwind for Crude Oil prices. That said, the Israel-Hamas war, so far, has shown little signs of abating, keeping risks of Middle Eastern geopolitics in play and lending some support to the black liquid.
Adding to this, expectations that major central banks will cut interest rates to support economic growth, which, in turn, will boost fuel consumption, and a surprise drop in US crude inventories last week help limit the downside for Crude Oil prices. In fact, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday that US oil inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels during the week to April 19 and added to the optimism over improving demand.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) languishes near its lowest level in over a week in the wake of Tuesday's disappointing US PMI prints for April and further seems to lend support to the commodity. That said, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer support prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying and warrants caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for Crude Oil prices.
Traders now look forward to the official US crude inventory data for confirmation of the big drawdown and some meaningful impetus. Apart from this, the release of the US Durable Goods Orders might influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities around Crude Oil prices. The focus, however, remains on the Advance US Q1 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
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