Bitcoin is stuck under $116k, sellers keep blocking breakouts

As of writing, the crypto market outlook for September 2025 shows Bitcoin hovering near $112,740 (intraday high $115,861), Ether trading around $4,190, and XRP changing hands near $2.82. BTC’s momentum is fading at familiar resistance, ETH has fresh tailwinds, and XRP’s path tightens beneath the $3 ceiling.

Bitcoin (BTC) has faced rejection multiple times in the $115k–$116k range, where sellers continue to cap upside attempts. Even when the price goes up for a bit, intraday trading shows heavy supply cutting rallies short. Unless buyers can take back that range with conviction, momentum will be stuck at resistance. 

Ethereum (ETH) looks far more constructive, supported by robust ETF inflows and steadily shrinking exchange balances. With sell-side supply drying up and more coins locked into staking, ETH is ready for another leg up. A clean break above nearby resistance could open the path to $5,000, and that could happen fast if institutional demand continues. 

XRP remains capped under $3 while traders watch support at $2.80 and $2.60. If those floors break, downside momentum could build quickly and $2 could be in play. Without fresh catalysts, XRP’s outlook is weaker than both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin struggles to break $116K

The Bitcoin price outlook remains capped as sellers defend the $116,000-$118,000 range, a level many desks describe as the “line to beat” before BTC can make a fast run to $120,000. After the big rally in August, momentum has cooled, and the market is in consolidation mode unless buyers can take back and hold above resistance.

In early September, the daily RSI dipped into the low 40s before recovering to mid-range, a sign that buying pressure had decreased from August’s surge. RSI alone doesn’t decide the trend, but adds to the idea that Bitcoin will go sideways until a fresh catalyst kicks in. 

Levels that matter now:

• Resistance: $116k-$118k, then $120k.
• Support: $112k spot zone, deeper $110k-$108k if risk-off returns. 

Ethereum heads to $5,000

The $5,000 target has a strong bull case across multiple data points. Spot ETF flows have accelerated, with CoinShares reporting $646M in inflows in one week, while BlackRock’s ETH ETF saw $363M in its biggest daily inflow this month. These numbers show the scale of institutional demand pouring into ETH.

At the same time, sell-side supply is drying up fast. Exchange balances are at a nine-year low, according to Glassnode data, while over 35 million ETH, around 29-31% of supply, is now staked. Both of these dynamics are reducing the amount of ETH available for trading, adding to the pressure that could propel a big move up.

$ETH supply on exchanges is dropping fast.

Now at the lowest levels in years in 9 years.

No one is ready for the Ethereum supply squeeze. pic.twitter.com/nLsBcoZwWl

— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) September 3, 2025

Analysts are also getting more bullish. In its latest Ethereum price prediction, Standard Chartered just raised its year-end price to $7,500, citing ETH’s growing role in institutional adoption and its leadership in altcoin trends. With inflows, supply squeeze, and rising targets, Ethereum is set to challenge and potentially break $5,000.

What to watch: A close above nearby resistance clusters (upper-$4.6k/low-$4.7k) could “blink” ETH through $5,000 on flow-through momentum and thin spot liquidity. Pullbacks to $4.2k-$4.3k would keep the structure intact if the broader crypto bull run strengthens on institutional inflows.

XRP bears push price toward $2

The XRP under $2 scenario is getting closer as the token is range-bound below $3, with topside supply capping breakouts. Technicians are flagging $2.86-$2.88 and then $2.60 as key supports; if those break during a risk wobble, bears will circle the $2 handle. 

On the regulatory front, the SEC and Ripple end their five-year legal back-and-forth with a joint dismissal of appeals, reducing legal overhang. Then, the Court approves the joint Ripple-SEC motion to dismiss appeals in the XRP case, clarifying enforcement risk. 

But the next catalyst is ETF-related. After the Sept 18 rule changes, the SEC approved generic listing rules for commodity-based trusts. U.S. exchanges can list spot crypto ETFs under generic standards, opening a faster way for products beyond BTC/ETH. Last week, the first spot XRP and Dogecoin ETFs went live in the United States. 

Timing is still binary risk until approvals land, with markets eyeing October windows — and XRP spot ETF approval odds surge to 92% for 2025.

Xrp ETF 2025 approval odds at 87% on polymarket…

Personally think closer to 100%.

pic.twitter.com/BmrV5l1ZWM

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 2, 2025

Fed cuts rates, but the dollar stays strong

Fed cuts to 4.00%-4.25% and the easing cycle is back on, supporting risk assets like crypto. But a DXY near 97.7 is capping the full impact of that liquidity boost.

If the dollar softens into Q4 and policy stays easy, dips in majors will get bought. A strong dollar, however, keeps rallies choppy and level sensitive.

Bitcoin’s momentum is fading, XRP may dip under $2, but Ethereum is ready to surprise the market with a move to $5,000. In a market like this, conviction and timing will decide who wins the next big move

Markets reveal key levels: Verified data (As of Writing)

Bitcoin is at $112,740, with an intraday high of $115,861 and a low of $112,421. Key resistance at $116k-$118k, could push to $120k if buyers get back in.

Ethereum sits near $4,190, supported by $646M in ETF inflows last week, a 9-year low in exchange balances, and over 35M ETH staked, all pointing to the Ethereum $5,000 target. 

XRP at $2.82, still under $3, immediate support at $2.86-$2.60; if it fails there, XRP under $2 is back in the game. 

The smartest crypto minds already read our newsletter. Want in? Join them.