ECB survey shows Eurozone households cutting back after Trump tariffs

The European Central Bank says Trump’s tariffs are hitting Eurozone households hard. New survey data from June 2025 confirms that families across Europe are spending less, expecting prices to rise, and cutting back on U.S. goods in direct response to the trade war kicked off by the White House earlier this year.

The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey shows inflation fears, personal financial stress, and slowing economic growth tied to these tariffs are shaping how people shop, save, and think about the future.

Roughly 40% of people in the Eurozone now believe the tariffs are raising inflation. About 13% say their own finances have been hurt, and 24% believe the entire economy will slow down because of the U.S. trade moves.

This isn’t speculation. The ECB gathered these numbers after Trump’s April tariff announcement, and they show real shifts in what people expect and how they behave.

Consumers in the Eurozone brace for higher inflation and slower growth

People who believe the tariffs will fuel inflation have already raised their own forecasts. The survey shows that, compared to January 2025, those individuals now expect inflation to be 0.2 percentage points higher one year out.

Their three-year forecast went up 0.13 points, and even their five-year expectations rose by 0.06. That’s a lot for long-term inflation, which usually doesn’t move much. It shows they think this situation isn’t going away fast.

On growth, it’s the same story. People who see the tariffs as recession triggers cut their 12-month growth expectations by 0.4 percentage points. That’s double the cut seen from people who don’t think the tariffs will hurt the economy.

The ECB says this split shows a clear divide between people who are feeling the pressure and those who aren’t. But either way, the mood is cautious.

Spending drops and consumers ditch U.S. goods

The reaction isn’t just in forecasts, it’s in wallets. 26% of survey respondents said they’ve already stopped buying American products. 16% said they’ve reduced their overall spending since the tariffs were announced.

Richer households are more likely to skip U.S. goods, while lower-income families are tightening up across the board. What’s driving that divide? Financial literacy. People who understand economics more deeply are the ones switching brands. Those with less understanding are just buying less of everything.

A big chunk of the spending cuts is hitting non-essential items. The ECB says spending on basic needs, like food and rent, hasn’t changed much. But anything extra? That’s where the squeeze is. When comparing January to April 2025, households that changed their habits after the tariffs slashed their spending more than others. All the damage hit discretionary expenses.

Mislav Matejka, strategist at JPMorgan Chase, said this slowdown might not last. “The potential turn up in earnings and buybacks could be one of the supports for the more positive Eurozone stance entering next year, once the current consolidation runs its course,” Matejka wrote in a note to investors. The Eurozone stock market, tracked by the Stoxx 600, is up 9% this year, but that’s still behind the S&P 500’s 13% rise. Profits in the Eurozone are already down 1% this year.

Consensus expects Stoxx 600 earnings-per-share to climb 11% in 2026, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. S&P 500 profits are expected to grow about 14% next year, the data show.

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