ECB risks missing inflation goal without further rate cuts, Gediminas Simkus warns

The ECB needs to lower rates again in December or risk missing its inflation goal, Gediminas Simkus said Friday in Copenhagen.

The Lithuanian central bank chief, who sits on the Governing Council, warned that without another cut, price growth could stay stuck below the 2% target.

“From a risk-management perspective, it’s better to cut than not,” Simkus said, calling a December move necessary. “The inflation target would benefit, the economy would benefit, so we should do it in December and then wait and see.” He made these comments while attending a meeting of European finance chiefs, where monetary policy was at the top of the agenda.

Simkus made it clear that he thinks inflation risks are tilted to the downside. He said weaker imports from China, a stronger euro, and delayed climate-policy rollouts will keep prices down.

And he didn’t hold back on what’s coming: core inflation already looks soft, wage growth is slowing, and fiscal spending won’t boost demand anytime soon. “Of course there are some upside risks, but those on the downside definitely dominate,” he said.

Simkus pushes for rate cut while ECB majority digs in

Simkus is not speaking for most of his colleagues. Since the ECB left the deposit rate at 2% this month, most Council members have shown no rush to cut again.

Christine Lagarde, the bank’s president, repeated that borrowing costs are in a “good place” to maintain price stability, a phrase several members have copied in their own remarks. That tone has led economists to walk back earlier bets on more easing. Markets have done the same.

Greece’s Yannis Stournaras is one of the dovish members who are happy with the current stance. He said the ECB pulled off a “soft landing” and was right to hold rates steady.

France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau, however, doesn’t think more cuts are off the table. He warned that inflation could slip further in the years ahead. “It’s hard to think how inflation won’t undershoot our target in the medium term,” Francois said. “I’d definitely expect our projection for 2028 to be below 2%.”

The most recent ECB forecasts, published in September, put inflation at 1.9% for 2027. The December projections will extend into 2028 for the first time, and will show whether policymakers have really done enough.

Simkus isn’t convinced they have. He pointed to factors that may weaken inflation pressures even more, including countries dragging their feet on emissions-trading reforms. That, combined with low wage gains and slow fiscal impact, could keep inflation below the target for longer than expected.

Muller and Centeno say ECB should wait and watch

Still, not every official is calling for a move. Madis Muller, Estonia’s central bank head, argued there’s no immediate reason to cut again. “For the time being, with interest rates mildly supportive of growth and inflation where we want it to be, I don’t think we need to do more,” he said, also from Copenhagen. He added that future growth will rely more on domestic demand than outside forces.

Portugal’s Mario Centeno isn’t in a rush either, but he said the ECB shouldn’t assume things won’t change. “I continue to believe that inflation risks are to the downside because the risks for economic activity are to the downside,” Mario said. “We are comfortably sitting in a pile of risks. But we mustn’t become too complacent.”

The informal Copenhagen gathering wasn’t just about interest rates. Central bankers and finance ministers also made headway on the ECB’s plan for a digital euro.

The Eurogroup reached a deal on how to set holding limits for the currency, which the ECB has been pushing as a European response to US-backed stablecoins. Muller said the region needs a real alternative to card payments controlled by American giants like Visa and Mastercard.

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