Prediction: Here's Where Corning Stock Will Trade in 2030

Shares of Corning (NYSE:GLW) have dropped a long way since late June. At roughly $132 as of this writing, the materials company trades at under half the 52-week high of about $272.

But the business is heading the other way. In its third-quarter report on Oct. 27, Corning said core sales, its non-GAAP (adjusted) revenue measure, rose 19% year over year to $5.08 billion. Adjusted earnings per share grew nearly twice as fast, up 36% to $0.91 -- topping management's own forecast.

And management sees fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.96 to $1.00, or around 36% growth again.

Where might the stock trade by the end of 2030? I figure around $187 per share. This estimate assumes adjusted earnings per share of about $7.50 in 2030 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 by then. At today's price, this comes to yearly returns of around 9%, before dividends.

Image source: Getty Images.

Earnings are outpacing sales

Showing how fast profits are rising, Corning's adjusted operating margin widened to 22.7% in Q3, up 3.1 percentage points year over year. Core sales growth sped up from 17% in Q2 to 19%. Earnings per share growth, meanwhile, picked up from 30% in Q2 to 36% in Q3. Using the first nine months plus the midpoint of the fourth-quarter forecast, Corning's adjusted earnings per share should land near $3.38 for 2026 -- up about 34% from $2.52 in 2025.

Most of this strength comes from one segment. Optical communications sales surged 44% year over year to $2.38 billion. Even more, the segment's net income grew 80%.

Sales of its generative artificial intelligence (AI) products more than doubled.

Not every unit is pulling its weight. Glass innovations sales (display and specialty glass) fell 3%, because climbing memory prices hurt the consumer electronics markets it sells into.

But optical communications now makes up almost half of core sales, so it can carry a weak quarter elsewhere.

Corning's plan suggests faster earnings growth

My earnings path starts with the company's own target. Corning's internal plan calls for a $40 billion yearly sales pace at the end of 2030, twice its $20 billion goal for the end of this year. Management said that means annual sales growth of around 19% between 2027 and 2030.

Corning is already past its first goal, since third-quarter core sales total about $20.3 billion annualized.

"We also expect to grow earnings faster than sales," said CFO Ed Schlesinger in the company's third-quarter earnings release.

On the third-quarter earnings call, CEO Wendell Weeks said that over the plan's first three years, through the end of 2026, sales should rise around 60% while earnings per share climb more than 150%. Corning also signed four long-term, multibillion-dollar customer agreements in the third quarter, including deals with Verizon and AT&T.

But my estimate allows for profits to fall short of management's ambitions. I assume adjusted earnings per share climb around 22% a year from 2026's roughly $3.38, which hits about $7.50 in 2030, or a little over double this year's number.

Is 9% a year good enough?

The valuation multiple is where I'm most cautious. Corning's shares trade at around 42 times adjusted earnings over the past four quarters, and about 29 times forecast 2027 earnings.

By 2030, Corning would be a much bigger company, and investors tend to pay less for every dollar of earnings as growth matures. I use 25 times earnings instead, which still assumes Corning keeps growing at a healthy rate.

At this price-to-earnings ratio, $7.50 in earnings per share equals around $187. At 20 times earnings, the 2030 price would be about $150, or annual returns of about 3%.

Notably, even $187 is well below the stock's 52-week high. I think this shows how far shares got ahead of the business earlier this year.

Sure, much of Corning's growth hinges on a few tech giants keeping their AI data center budgets high, and a cutback might hit optical sales hard. But management said some customers pay cash up front to fund Corning's new capacity, which arguably cushions the blow if demand slows.

Overall, Corning's stock looks reasonably priced for a company growing earnings this fast, and I'd consider buying shares here. But at around 9% a year, my 2030 estimate is a solid result, not a spectacular one.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Corning. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.