Bitcoin Is Beating the S&P 500, so Why Is $85,000 Still Out of Reach?
Bitcoin is beating the S&P 500 on more trading days than not in recent weeks. Still, the price keeps failing to hold above $85,000, and has more recently even struggled to stay clear of $80,000.
On-chain data points to 12 factors, from fading ETF demand to heavy supply from long-term holders.
Bitcoin Regains Strength Against the S&P 500
Relative strength compares how one asset performs against another over the same period. In June, Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 on only one day in five, its weakest stretch in over five years.
However, in October, Bitcoin is winning more sessions than it loses against equities. If investors keep rotating into the stronger asset, that trend could reinforce itself.
That said, the price still struggles to break higher. Bitcoin peaked at $87,100 on September 23; since January, though, it has closed above $85,000 on only five days.
What Are the 12 Factors Keeping Bitcoin Below $85,000?
Glassnode’s findings fall into three broad areas: demand, supply, and market sentiment.
On the demand side, ETF flows have netted out. Most of the $653 million that entered on October 19 has already left. Buy orders on Binance have also moved lower, toward $78,000 to $79,000.
On the supply side, long-term holders own about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000. Many may sell near break-even, which helps explain why the $84,000 to $85,000 band keeps capping rallies. Bitcoin also slipped just below the ETF cost basis near $81,500.
Meanwhile, the broader backdrop remains soft. Economic growth has stalled, consumer confidence sits near post-2009 lows, and Bitcoin’s recovery lags its 2023 rebound. Speculative traders also favor stocks, while altcoin breadth fades.
Still, there are early signs of stability. Volatility has compressed to 2023 levels, losses on each dip keep shrinking, and wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC continue buying.
The Fed Decision and the Levels to Watch
The Fed held rates steady on October 28, after a quarter-point hike in September.
Some analysts had flagged the decision as a possible trigger, since the last two volatility lows came days before sharp moves.
On the downside, the $78,000 to $79,000 bids and the True Market Mean near $77,900 offer support. Below that, the short-term holder cost basis sits at $75,800.
On the upside, a daily close above $81,500 would put the average ETF holder back in profit. Daily closes above $85,000 would mark the next step, while a close above $87,500 with rising ETF inflows would confirm stronger demand.
$90,000–95,000 for #Bitcoin this quarter is still on the cards.I was expecting to see a retest at $80,000, this hasn't happened today through FOMC. Spot is aggressively buying #Bitcoin, perps are currently short on the markets. That means that there's structural demand for… pic.twitter.com/vlmgmzZ0dT
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 28, 2026
For now, Bitcoin’s relative strength against stocks has not translated into a decisive breakout.
Disclaimer: The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. CFD trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article serves informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consider your risk tolerance before trading.
