SanDisk Stock Price Forecast: SNDK Falls 4% Despite Earnings Beat and 8-for-1 Split, Losing $1,300 Risks Another 10% Drop

TradingKey - SanDisk (SNDK) delivered an earnings report after Thursday's U.S. market close that comprehensively exceeded market expectations. Driven by rapid growth in AI data center storage demand, the company's first-fiscal-quarter revenue, earnings, and next-quarter guidance all topped analyst forecasts, while it also announced an 8-for-1 stock split to lower the per-share trading price and improve stock accessibility.

Prior to the earnings release, SanDisk shares fell 5.32% in regular trading to close at $1,330. After the results were announced, the stock briefly rose after-hours before paring gains to close down 3.84%, indicating that the market had already partially priced in the strong fundamentals.

For the first fiscal quarter ended October 2, SanDisk reported revenue of $11.031 billion, up 23% quarter-over-quarter and 378% year-over-year, exceeding analysts' forecast of approximately $10.7 billion. GAAP net income reached $8.101 billion, with diluted earnings per share of $52.60; non-GAAP earnings per share stood at $49.51, also exceeding the market expectation of $46.67. Non-GAAP gross margin rose to 85.1%, continuing to improve from the previous quarter, indicating that tight NAND supply, rising product prices, and an increasing share of high-value data center products are significantly enhancing the company's profitability.

The data center business was the primary source of growth this quarter, with revenue increasing 61% quarter-over-quarter to $4.802 billion, accounting for approximately 44% of total revenue. As AI inference, KV Cache, vector databases, and long-context applications continue to expand storage demand, NAND is gradually evolving from a traditional capacity product into a vital component of AI infrastructure. Management expects data centers to remain the core of industry growth in 2027, with related bit demand potentially growing by about 40% year-over-year.

Looking ahead to the second fiscal quarter, SanDisk expects revenue to reach $12.2 billion to $12.6 billion, with the midpoint above market forecasts; non-GAAP gross margin is expected to remain between 84.5% and 85.5%, and pre-split adjusted EPS is projected at $55 to $57. The strong guidance suggests that AI data center customer demand and NAND pricing remain solid, with no clear signs of a near-term slowdown.

Meanwhile, the company announced an 8-for-1 stock split. Shareholders of record at the close of business on November 9 will receive seven additional shares for every one share held. The additional shares are scheduled to be distributed after market close on November 19, and trading on a split-adjusted basis will begin on November 20.

Based on $1,330, the theoretical post-split price would be approximately $166.25. However, the stock split itself does not alter the company's market capitalization or the value of investors' holdings; its main purpose is to lower the per-share price and improve trading convenience.

SanDisk's better-than-expected earnings failed to boost the stock primarily because the market had already fully priced in expectations of AI storage demand, NAND price hikes, and tight supply. Since completing its spin-off from Western Digital in 2025, SNDK stock has surged more than 2,600% cumulatively, with gains exceeding 450% since 2026.

Given such a high base, even with a strong earnings report, investors remain focused on whether growth can be sustained, whether gross margins are approaching a cyclical peak, and whether AI infrastructure capital expenditure could slow down.

Source: TradingView

From a technical perspective, SNDK has broken below its 20-day moving average of $1,447.22 and 60-day moving average of $1,547, with the 20-day moving average below the 60-day moving average, signaling that the medium- to short-term trend remains bearish. The RSI stands at 40.98, and although it is above the signal line of 35.79, it has yet to reclaim the 50 midline, indicating limited rebound momentum.

In the short term, close attention should be paid to the psychological level of $1,300. If the stock breaks below this level convincingly, the first downside support lies at $1,222; if that level fails to hold, the stock could further test $1,200, representing a potential drop of nearly 10% from the pre-earnings close. Stronger support is located near $1,000.

To the upside, resistance is first located at $1,330–$1,350, followed by the 20-day moving average of $1,447. Only a high-volume reclaim of $1,447 would give SNDK an opportunity to ease the current downward trend and retest the 60-day moving average near $1,547.