Prediction: This Is Where Palantir Stock Will Trade When Its Revenue Hits $10 Billion

Shares of Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) ended at a record $209.05 on Oct. 9. At roughly $198 as I write, they're about 5% under that peak.

The artificial intelligence (AI) software specialist's second-quarter revenue grew 93% year over year to about $1.94 billion. And management now expects about $8.15 billion in revenue for 2026, or 82% more than last year.

At this rate, a $10 billion year isn't far away. Palantir's revenue for its past four quarters could clear that level as early as the middle of 2027.

My prediction: when it does, Palantir stock will trade at roughly $208, almost exactly where it set its record. That'd be just about 5% above today's price, though Palantir would be taking in about 60% more revenue a year than it did in its past four reported quarters.

Image source: Getty Images.

When does Palantir reach $10 billion?

Palantir's growth has sped up for four straight quarters. Revenue climbed 48% year over year in the second quarter of 2025, then 63% in the third quarter, 70% in the fourth quarter, 85% in the first quarter of 2026, and 93% in the second quarter. Net income grew even faster, more than tripling year over year to around $1.06 billion in the second quarter.

Management's guidance, though, calls for growth to slow from here. Palantir sees third-quarter revenue of around $2.16 billion, or about 83% growth. And its full-year outlook implies fourth-quarter revenue of around $2.42 billion, up about 72%. Then again, Palantir has tended to beat its own forecasts. In each of the past three quarters, revenue landed around 6% to 8% above the top of management's range.

Plus, the full-year target keeps rising. It went from around $7.19 billion in February to about $7.65 billion in May, then to around $8.15 billion in August.

If the third and fourth quarters match guidance, Palantir's trailing revenue reaches $10 billion when its first-half 2027 sales rise around 52% year over year. If those two quarters beat guidance by about as much as the past three did, growth in the mid-40s would do it.

Either way, the milestone would probably show up in Palantir's second-quarter 2027 report.

Investors are paying less for each dollar of sales

Palantir's market value of around $477 billion comes out to about 77 times its revenue in the past four reported quarters. A year ago, the price-to-sales multiple was about 128 times sales. The sales multiple fell by around 40% in a stretch when revenue growth almost doubled.

Put simply, investors paid a bit more for the business overall but far less for each dollar it took in. The shares gained around 7% in that year, while trailing revenue grew about 79%.

I'll assume the sales multiple keeps falling at about that rate, hitting 50 times sales by the middle of 2027. Fifty times sales is still a rich price for any software company. But I think it's a fair one for a business that, if guidance holds, would be growing slower than it is now.

The stock could end up right back at its record

At 50 times sales, $10 billion of yearly revenue supports a market value of about $500 billion. Divide it by the 2.4 billion shares Palantir reported outstanding in its last quarterly filing, and you get about $208 a share.

From today's price of roughly $198, that is a return of about 6% a year, if the stock gets there around August 2027.

That estimate also fits with the price where I'd consider buying Palantir stock -- about $140, or about 120 times its earnings in the last year. If Palantir keeps turning about half its revenue into net income, as it did in the past four quarters, $208 would be about 110 times earnings by mid-2027.

In that case, the stock would be cheaper by my measure than it is now, even at a slightly higher price.

The bigger risk is that the sales multiple falls faster than I think, if growth slows more sharply than guidance implies. The stock shed around 34% of its value over the first half of 2026 alone. And that risk is why 6% a year looks thin to me.

The company could reach $10 billion within a year or so. But at about $198, I think investors are already paying for most of that growth. I'm happy to let the revenue catch up with the price first.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.