Did Citigroup's Latest Earnings Change the Investment Case?

The second quarter proved to be a strong one for big banks, which were fueled by a surge in investment banking and mergers and acquisitions, institutional trading, and rising asset levels. But one big bank failed to impress investors despite reporting solid results in Q2: Citigroup (NYSE: C).

Citigroup stock has tumbled some 7% since the bank reported earnings on July 14. It's surprising given how Citigroup performed, crushing estimates by a wider margin than many of its competitors. But the investment case may have turned negative for many investors on the tepid outlook.

But is this a knee-jerk reaction or a longer-term concern?

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Blowout Q2 results

Citigroup turned in an excellent second quarter, with revenue up 14% year over year to $24.8 billion. This beat estimates of $23.7 billion. Net income skyrocketed 45% to $5.8 billion, or $3.15 per share, which destroyed consensus estimates of $2.73 per share. Earnings were buoyed by improving credit quality, as provisions for credit losses were $2.5 billion, 12% lower than the same quarter a year ago.

Citigroup posted strong gains across the board. Net interest income rose 13% year over year across the franchise. Equity markets trading revenue soared 45%, while investment banking revenue surged 44% year over year.

Also, its efficiency ratio, which shows how much the bank spends for every dollar of revenue, sank by 530 basis points to 57.4%. And its return on tangible common equity, another key efficiency metric, soared 430 basis points to 13%.

Given the strong results, investors were looking for the bank to raise its guidance, but it did not, as Citigroup maintained its previous guidance across its key metrics. Not only did Citigroup not lift its outlook, it raised some red flags.

Playing the long game

On the earnings call, CFO Gonzalo Luchetti said management expects expense growth to outpace revenue growth in some of the next few quarters as the bank invests in its business. Some of the increased spending will come from pulling forward investments initially slated for 2027.

"We are taking full advantage of the market conditions, particularly if they are good in the second half, to be able to make the investments and take actions that will drive growth for the next number of years. And that is where and that is the message that the Street should be taking from this," CEO Jane Fraser said on the earnings call. "We are playing the long game."

The Street is actually bullish on Citigroup stock, with 77% rating it as a buy. It has a median price target of $156 per share, which suggests 18% upside.

Citigroup stock is cheap right now, trading at 12 times forward earnings and a PEG ratio below 1 at 0.72. And if the next few quarters are choppy, it could become even cheaper. The outlook may have changed the short-term investment case for some, but as Fraser said, they are playing the long game. It might not be a bad stock to pick up if it dips further, as the efficiency and growth metrics have been excellent.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.