Archer Aviation vs. AST SpaceMobile: Which Aerospace Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Investors seeking exposure to future-leaning technologies often weigh the potential of urban air mobility against satellite-to-phone connectivity when comparing Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) and AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) for their growth portfolios.

Archer Aviation focuses on "flying taxis" to bypass ground traffic, while AST SpaceMobile aims to eliminate global dead zones by providing satellite cellular service. Both companies represent ambitious, capital-intensive bets on infrastructure. Choosing between them requires understanding their different paths to regulatory approval, their distinct manufacturing hurdles, and their current financial health as they move toward commercial scale.

The case for Archer Aviation

Archer Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for commercial and military use. This growth among industrial stocks is anchored by the United Purchase Agreement, providing for the conditional purchase of up to $1.0 billion in Midnight aircraft from United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL). The company also partners with the U.S. Air Force and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) for manufacturing support.

In FY 2025, Archer Aviation reported revenue of $300,000. This early-stage revenue was accompanied by a net loss of approximately $618.2 million. This reflects a company still in its pre-commercial phase as it pursues aircraft type and production certification.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.1x. This ratio measures total debt, including short- and long-term obligations, against shareholders' equity, with a lower number indicating less reliance on borrowed money. Free cash flow was negative at $511.7 million, representing the cash remaining after operating and capital spending are covered.

The case for AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile builds a space-based cellular broadband network that connects standard smartphones directly to satellites. Its model relies on strategic partnerships with mobile network operators like AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ). These agreements provide access to nearly 3 billion subscribers globally through the partner network, bypassing the need for traditional customer acquisition.

In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $70.9 million, a substantial jump from the $4.4 million reported in the prior fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of nearly $342 million for the period. While revenue growth is accelerating as the company begins its commercial rollout, profitability remains a distant goal during this build-out phase.

The current debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.2x, showing the company relies more on debt than equity to fund its operations. Free cash flow, which is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was more than negative $1.1 billion for FY 2025, reflecting heavy investment in its satellite constellation.

Risk profile comparison

Archer Aviation faces substantial regulatory certification risk, as it must secure FAA type and production certificates before launching commercial service. The business is highly capital-intensive, requiring frequent cash infusions that could lead to dilution or debt. It also faces competition from well-funded aerospace incumbents like Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) and other eVTOL developers.

AST SpaceMobile depends on the successful launch and deployment of satellites, where any malfunction could delay service or cause total losses. The company relies heavily on mobile network operators to market its services, creating a dependency on third-party performance. Furthermore, it competes against established providers like Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and regional satellite providers in the race for global connectivity.

Valuation comparison

Based on future earnings estimates and the Forward P/E ratio, Archer Aviation looks more affordable than AST SpaceMobile despite its higher P/S ratio.

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Which stock would I buy in 2026?

Last year, the U.S. federal government created the framework for real-world testing of eVTOL aircraft, a concrete step toward making Archer's vision a reality. Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia are other countries building similar regulatory frameworks. A lot still has to happen for Archer’s aircraft to get into the skies, but the notion that the nation's airspace is being regulated in a way that is holding back growth is one that has found favor.

Archer is taking steps to refurbish a small Los Angeles airport for use as its testing grounds and is working to scale up its manufacturing capabilities to eventually reach capacity for 50 planes a year. Management has an initial plan to focus on military and cargo uses for its plane, which would be an easier path to early revenue. It's highly speculative, but Wall Street analysts see Archer turning its first profit in 2030, with $2.3 billion in revenue, but a lot has to go right between now and then.

AST SpaceMobile is a very different business from Archer. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play, providing full mobile phone compatibility with major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also shareholders in the company, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Telus (NYSE:TU), Bell Canada, and Rakuten.

By the end of the year, the company expects to have 45 satellites in orbit, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.

Air taxis and electric planes are promising businesses for Archer, but the airline business has shown that there are very few competitive moats in the long run. Coupled with its long runway to significant revenue generation, it’s a wait-and-see stock right now.

AST SpaceMobile, on the other hand, does have the burden of very high capital expenditures right now, but it has a fairly high competitive moat for its space-based network. Its roster of telco investors and quick path to revenue growth starting next year make it the stock to buy in 2026.

Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, Amazon, American Tower, and Boeing. The Motley Fool recommends Stellantis, TELUS, Verizon Communications, and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.