ASML Stock Price Forecast: Q2 Earnings Beat Plus Raised Guidance, Stock Price Expected to Break $2,000

TradingKey - As of July 15, Eastern Time, ASML Its US ADR was last at $1,815.27, up 2.23% on the day, with an intraday high of $1,830. ASML's stock price strengthened significantly after the earnings release, primarily because the company's second-quarter results beat market expectations and it raised its full-year revenue guidance again.

ASML Second-Quarter Earnings Beat Estimates, Full-Year Guidance Raised Again

According to ASML's latest financial report, the company's second-quarter revenue reached 9.33 billion euros, exceeding analysts' expectations of 8.8 billion euros; net profit was 2.92 billion euros, also higher than the market expectation of 2.62 billion euros; total net sales in the second quarter were approximately 9.3 billion euros, with a gross margin of 54.0% and basic earnings per share of 7.59 euros. Whether in terms of revenue, profit, or gross margin, the results show that the company still maintains strong pricing power and delivery capabilities amid the AI chip investment cycle.

More importantly, the company raised its full-year net sales guidance for 2026 to between 43 billion and 45 billion euros, up from the previous range of 36 billion to 40 billion euros. This adjustment indicates that management has significantly greater confidence in the pace of second-half orders, customer capacity expansion, and equipment delivery.

From a market perspective, the core reason for ASML's earnings beat remains the demand for AI chip capacity expansion. As Nvidia ( NVDA ), AMD, Broadcom ( AVGO) and other AI chip companies continue to benefit from data center construction, TSMC ( TSM ), Samsung, Intel ( INTC ), SK Hynix, and Micron ( MU) and other wafer fabrication and memory manufacturers also need to continue expanding advanced process node and high-end memory capacities. Nvidia's AI chips, TSMC's advanced nodes, Samsung and SK Hynix's HBM expansion, and Micron's high-end DRAM upgrades all indirectly rely on the supply capacity of EUV lithography equipment. As the world's sole supplier of EUV lithography machines, ASML will see support for its stock price to continue rising.

AI Demand Drives ASML Capacity Expansion

For ASML's latest earnings report, the market's primary focus is on production capacity. ASML stated that it plans to increase capacity by approximately 30% in 2027 and 2028, respectively, to meet strong customer demand for EUV and DUV equipment. As the market previously worried that ASML's capacity constraints could become a bottleneck for AI chip expansion, the capacity expansion plan helps alleviate this concern.

Jefferies noted in an analysis that the company's latest capacity plan may still be conservative, meaning that if customer demand continues to exceed expectations, ASML could further raise its capacity and revenue assumptions in the future. Citigroup and Cantor Fitzgerald also share a positive view, believing that ASML's current forecast is more of a base case rather than the most optimistic scenario, leaving room for subsequent upward revisions.

In terms of customer structure, demand for ASML's equipment comes not only from logic chips but also from memory and mature nodes. Customers such as TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology are all pushing ahead with AI-related capacity expansions. Especially amid rapidly rising demand for HBM, advanced DRAM, AI accelerators, and custom chips, fabs' demand for EUV, DUV, and related metrology and inspection equipment is on the rise.

At the same time, ASML's High-NA EUV has also become a critical variable for its future valuation. Intel will use ASML's next-generation High-NA tools to produce some advanced chips, indicating that next-generation lithography technology is entering the phase of practical application. High-NA EUV equipment comes with a higher price tag and stronger technological barriers; if adopted by more advanced-process customers in the future, it will further reinforce ASML's long-term moat and provide sustained support for its stock price growth.

ASML Share Price Technical Analysis

ASML daily stock price chart, Source: TradingView

From the daily chart of ASML's stock price, the trend shows a clear bullish pattern as the highs and lows of the candlesticks continue to shift upward. Meanwhile, multiple moving averages maintain a bullish alignment, further reinforcing the sustainability of the uptrend.

Currently, the stock has rebounded after a brief pullback to near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of $1,725, indicating strong support at this level and suggesting the stock price may resume its overall uptrend.

On the upside, the primary resistance level to watch is near $1,840. If the stock can break and hold above this level, it will open up upside potential toward its previous all-time high of $2,000. Continued gains to new highs would see the stock test the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level at $2,200.

On the downside, the immediate support level to monitor is around $1,725. If this level is breached, the stock will likely test the 60-day moving average near $1,660. A further pullback could see the stock drop toward $1,600.