SpaceX (SPCX) Buys Cursor for $60B Days After IPO — Will the August Float Unlock End the Rally?

TradingKey - SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) revealed on June 16 that it’s acquiring Anysphere, which owns AI coding startup Cursor, for $60 billion, in an all-stock deal four days after its IPO became the biggest in history. The deal sent SPCX shares to an all-time high of $225.64 intraday, before the Fed turned more hawkish on June 17, leading to an intraday drop of 5.6% that sent the stock back into the $187 to $192 range.

SPCX is now at $191.82, down from $201.80 yesterday, with the stock round-tripping from $135 to $225.64 and back inside a week. The Cursor acquisition, how the market is responding to it, and the supply side dynamics yet to unfold for SPCX are where investors should focus, the chart is the less important part of this story.

The $60 Billion Cursor Acquisition, Why SpaceX Was So Quick To Do It

Before the deal Anysphere, which owns Cursor, had $4 billion in annual recurring revenue. SpaceX will acquire it in stock, it will pay a $10 billion penalty if it can’t close for whatever reasons on its part, and a $4 billion breakup fee for regulatory review. Morningstar and others think the deal will close in Q3 of 2026. To quote Bill Ackman, SpaceX can pay for an enormous transaction like this in stock because its stock price is so high relative to fundamental metrics. It would take a low single-digit percentage of diluted shares to pay $60 billion in stock, and for a stock of any size that would be a massive price. It’s very cheap for SpaceX to pay with stock.

Why did it want to use the bulk of its post-IPO capital allocation on something like Cursor? Why not reduce debt, or spend on capex for Starship? Because management views the current environment this way. The Cursor acquisition places SPCX in the space of AI code software tooling, and also places Cursor under SpaceX, so Cursor should have access to xAI’s Colossus data centre and GPU infrastructure. That means that AI infrastructure, the business model that was behind the biggest part of SpaceX’s operating loss in 2025, will be a growth driver at least in name at SpaceX, a company that was a growth play in space but not AI.

SpaceX can also use Cursor’s access to Colossus to further its own AI work, in a way it couldn’t prior to this deal. This makes SPCX similar to Galaxy Digital with its compute lease, and IREN with its contract with Microsoft: where the 2026 valuation driver is a function of compute and lock-in for AI data centres rather than the price of the underlying asset it owns (Bitcoin for GD, lithium for IREN, and launch services for SpaceX).

Morningstar Cuts Fair Value to $62 — The Bear Case Just Got a Specific Number

After SPCX announced its Cursor deal, Morningstar downgraded its fair value for SPCX to $62 per share from $63. It now has SPCX listed among the most expensive stocks it covers. At $192 that means SPCX trades at 3.2 times Morningstar’s valuation, and if the stock price were to converge to Morningstar’s fair value that would mean 69% downside. Morningstar also has $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue growth to $36.8 billion in 2026, comparable in scale to Micron. This means that $62 is now the most concrete “the bear case” number attached to the SPCX stock since the IPO. In stark contrast to it, Simply Wall St thinks the stock trades at a discount, at 30.6% below Simply Wall St’s estimate of fair value, so we have $62 as a specific bear case number, and 100% more than that as an equivalent bull case number, and that’s without quarterly earnings data yet.

The Sept 2 first report, the only one in play, is the one event alone that can meaningfully narrow that dispersion because all models, bull and bear alike, are based on the IPO prospectus and management comments, not actual results. So long as nothing happens between now and then, SPCX gets priced based on the narrative and capital-allocation moves like the Cursor deal, which explains why it climbed all the way to $225.64 and then dropped back down 5.6% in just 72 hours.

The August Float Unlock Is the Catalyst That Matters More Than Any Single Session

What really moves the needle for SPCX isn’t any one day’s trading action, it’s the upcoming August float unlock. SpaceX’s IPO had a relatively low public float of ~5% of total shares with the balance locked up in the standard 180-day lockup through 12/08/2026. But another important milestone comes between the last week of July and the first week of August: if SPCX closes above 130% of the $135 IPO price on 5 of 10 trading days in advance of 2Q earnings, another 10% will unlock ahead of schedule in addition to the aforementioned special provision allowing up to 20% of standard locked shares (representing 4.6 billion total shares) to trade in that same window. 

The two events combined could mean a doubling of tradable float in the span of a few weeks leading into the Sept 2 earnings release, which would constitute a major supply event relative to the size of SPCX’ s float over the first week. The only other investor group that is still locked up is Musk, whose position is covered under a separate 366-day lockup through 06/12/2027.

The options chain already suggests that investors are positioning themselves around these future milestones: SPCX’ s first trading day saw a reported 1.6M+ contracts, ranking behind only Tesla and Nvidia for any newly public company. Given that degree of leverage and/or hedging in the early days of SPCX’ s trading history, it will likely be more responsive to news in the weeks ahead around M&A progress, the state of the regulatory process concerning the Cursor deal, and/or the float unlocks, than you’d expect from a typical large-cap tech stock

SPCX Technical Setup — Trendline Breakout at $195, RSI Neutral, Watch $192 Support

On the 1H chart, SPCX punched through the ascending black trendline at ~$195.17, trading above EMA50 at $192.17, RSI 46.29-47.81 is flat, no overhead and no bearish divergence. The fact that the green legs have higher volume confirms institutional interest in breaking above this resistance level. The Fib extension levels from the last swing bottom project SPCX to $201.22, already touched this week, then $211.56, and finally $222.77 for the 1.618, 2.0, and 2.414 extensions respectively.

SPCX Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Based on the angle of the current wave and the overall channel pattern, SPCX has the ability to reach $225 to $233 if the pattern holds. Given the current price of $191.82 is hovering below the $192.17 level for EMA50 on this chart, that’s why the $192 to $195 zone is so important to watch to confirm the breakout in either direction.

• Entry: Buy above $199.70, trendline breakout confirmed
• Target: $211.60, 2.0 Fib extension
• Stop: Below $192.20, EMA50 and trendline support fail
• Key date: Late July/early Aug, early float unlock possibility
• Next earnings: 09/02/2026, First public quarterly report

Bottom Line

An $60 billion all-stock deal to buy the makers of the Cursor AI coding app, announced a scant six days post-IPO, provides the first insight into what the pricing of an aggressive AI capital expenditure will look like from a newly public mega-cap name. The move took SpaceX stock to a new $225.64 high before a Fed pivot towards higher yields in the U.S. caused a sell-off to $191.82 (5.6% lower). With Morningstar reducing fair value to $62 and an unlock window opening up between late July to August, these are the two developments that matter most for risk management over the coming weeks before the Q2 earnings report, due out Sept. 2. While it remains the only date that will produce verified financial data to replace narrative-driven price action, the $195 breakout on neutral RSI still gives the near-term technical structure room for both bullishness and bearishness.