Retirees Could Get a Much Bigger Social Security Raise in 2027 Due to Inflation

The prices of groceries, gasoline, and pretty much everything else seem sky-high these days and are getting higher. There's a silver lining to this cloud, however -- at least for some people. That is, since Social Security's monthly payments are adjusted for inflation, beneficiaries should see a sizable increase in their payments in the foreseeable future.

You're not just imagining those inordinately high -- and rising -- prices

Just when you think price increases can't get any worse, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States' annualized consumer inflation rate reached a three-year high of 4.2% in May, up from 3.8% in April. Food and fuel prices led the charge, although even without these two categories, prices were still up 2.9% year over year.

And the nation's factories, assemblers, and packagers aren't feeling any less miserable. The BLS reported on Thursday that the U.S. Producer Price Index jumped 6.5% year over year last month, or a still-hefty 5.1% when excluding energy and food. Both figures are also at least three-year highs.

Of course, even if they didn't know the exact numbers, almost everyone who eats, owns a car, pays utility bills, or is looking for a place to live knows everything is now getting more expensive at an accelerated pace. Seniors and retirees who count on Social Security income that's less than what most working-age people earn may be feeling particularly pinched.

The good news is that relief is on the horizon for this particular crowd.

A strict, specific procedure

You likely realize that Social Security beneficiaries receive payment increases regularly. But, do you know how -- if one is put in place -- it's determined?

It's rather firmly structured, actually. Indeed, the Social Security program is required by law to provide an annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' aforementioned consumer inflation data. And not just a hand-picked, estimated figure. The Social Security Amendments of 1972 specifically require a COLA to be effective at the beginning of a new calendar year, based on the BLS's average annualized inflation rate for the months that comprise the third calendar quarter of the previous year. This allows the Social Security Administration time to make its necessary payment adjustments.

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But what about (the rare) years when there is no inflation? The program is off the hook in those years; there is no required COLA then, as was the case in 2015 (for 2016) and in 2009 and 2010 (for 2010 and 2011) due to the deflation stemming from the subprime mortgage meltdown and subsequent recession.

Fortunately, cost-of-living adjustments aren't cumulative, meaning Social Security's beneficiaries don't necessarily have to wait for the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) to "catch up" to a previous peak after a slump. The calculations are made every year for the next year alone, irrespective of prior years' numbers.

So far, 2027's COLA is on track to be a pretty big one

At first blush, the process appears to risk undercalculating -- or even overcalculating -- any given year's cost-of-living adjustment. After all, three months isn't a very long time compared to a full year. It's conceivable that something unusual could take shape in just the third quarter of any given year to undermine or overinflate the following year's COLA.

But that's kind of the whole point of doing it this way.

While the Social Security Administration considers only the consumer inflation rates for July, August, and September when determining the following year's COLA, those are year-over-year rates, each covering a full 12 months' worth of price changes. They're also the most recent price increases the program can consider in time to implement a payment increase beginning in January of the following year. Given this, these are arguably the only data inputs that retirees would want Social Security to consider... to ensure the cost-of-living adjustment is as relevant and timely as possible.

This, of course, means we don't yet know what next year's COLA will be; we won't know for sure until early October, when September's inflation data is available.

It somehow seems unlikely prices will fall dramatically between now and the end of Q3, though. To this end, assuming the average annualized consumer inflation rate of nearly 3.8% for the past three months reflects the figures that will still be in place through the third quarter of this year, look for an average monthly payment increase of about $78 for 2027, or nearly a 3.8% improvement on this year's typical Social Security benefit of $2,071 per month.

Just bear in mind that the bigger or smaller your current benefit is, the bigger or smaller your payment bump will be when the time comes.

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