Intel Stock Forecast: Why Microsoft's 18A Order Could Be a Turning Point for INTC: Could Apple Be Next?

TradingKey - Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) closed around $116.96, a strong breakout above the $110.63 EMA50 on the 4H chart, with high volume, in the ascending black channel, with a floor at the $95.87 EMA200. The RSI (between 51 and 61), neutral-bullish (no bearish divergence), high volume, and institutional buying confirmed.

Data Centre and AI for 1Q 2026 revenue growth 22% YoY to $5.1 billion; 18A yields on the Panther Lake test chip ranging 55-75%; Microsoft ordered the 18A capacity from its foundry; and Apple and Intel discussing Intel built chip in the USA. Intel foundry is turning into more than talk, with every passing customer.

The Microsoft 18A Order Represents the Crucial Breakthrough Point in Intel’s Turnaround

Intel’s foundry has always suffered from a lack of credibility: “All manufactures will promise a future roadmap but only the foundries with the proven history to deliver on-schedule and at good enough yields will receive significant capital investments from customers (usually in the multi-billion dollar scale along with their design costs).” Microsoft ordering the 18A capacity from Intel for its own use is the first significant proof that can be taken seriously by customers and investors alike. Microsoft doesn’t need Intel to run its foundational Azure cloud. The company will be able to get more TSMC chip capacity from its other foundry partners.

18A over TSMC is the decision to de-risk supply chain dependency to a single vendor, the proof of achieving 55-75% targeted yield and US-based supply of chip that may eventually be restricted by export controls in China and other countries. The second proof, which carries more emotional value, is Apple and Intel discussion.

Apple is arguably the most critical and discerning partner for any foundry. The firm demands its processors be built on cutting-edge technology. The A-series and M-series are so advanced, they stress even TSMC’s leading-edge process. If Apple is considering Intel’s 18A for any of its future chipsets, it suggests that the company no longer believes Intel’s yield improvements are just a sales pitch but something worthy of evaluation even by a client with little patience for quality or schedule failure.

Neither Microsoft nor Apple engages an alternative semiconductor partner as an afterthought. Both these announcements, even at an early phase of implementation, signal that the 55%-75% yield on the Panther Lake 18A test chips may be shifting the foundry business from “government-subsidized national champion” to “competitive TSMC alternative for select customers and applications.”

Data Centre & AI Revenue Jumps 22%, An Internal Proof Point for External Momentum

Data Centre and AI grew 22% in Q1 2026, generating $5.1 billion, thanks to the Gaudi 3 AI accelerator and Xeon 6 processors. It represents an internal validation that is playing out in tandem with the foundry wins. Gaudi 3 is the AI market that Nvidia currently rules, but Gaudi 3, while it will never be an Nvidia replacement in the high end of frontier model training, serves as a cheaper alternative for workloads that use inference and other AI applications where customers might seek a non-Nvidia supplier.

The Xeon 6 processors are also benefiting from a new round of AI server infrastructure build-outs, every AI server requires a host CPU, and the Xeon 6 processors are part of Intel’s data centre CPU franchise, which, while it is being squeezed by AMD, still commands an installed base and refresh cycle in which AI server upgrades may help. The combination of internal product strength (Data Centre & AI up 22%) and external product strength (the Microsoft 18A order and Apple talks) represents two-pronged momentum that is driving the turnaround thesis.

A single pillar of either type is positive, and both are now working together. It’s the signal that Intel’s CEO, Pat Gelsinger’s, years-long strategy is coming together to the point that the 18A manufacturing investment will start producing profits via multiple avenues other than just on Intel’s internal product line.

INTC Technical Analysis, The Stock Closes Above $117, Sees $123.80, Then $134

The stock price has moved decisively above its EMA50 at $110.63. It is now rising in an ascending black channel. Its low is the $95.87 floor, which represents the $95.87 floor on the EMA200. There’s some room to move up before it becomes overbought, and the RSI, at 51 to 61, is currently neutral-bullish. On lower wicks on minor retracements, there is strong absorption of the selling, dip buyers are active. There is still a resistance ceiling above $123 to $134, the area that is being tested for the next leg higher.

The next upside level, a close above $118.50, targets $123.80. This is along the extension of the ascending black channel. The next resistance, at $134, represents the descending black resistance channel.

• LONG: Above $118.50, EMA50 Breakout
• 1st Target: $123.80, Channel Extension
• 2nd Target: $134, Descending Black Resistance
• STOP LOSS: Daily close below $110.63, EMA50 Breakout Reversal

What Are Intel’s 18A Yields and Why Do They Matter?

The yields on Panther Lake test chips built on Intel's 18A technology have reached 55% to 75% and are rising. Intel's management has highlighted this performance as evidence the foundry business is approaching commercial viability. At 55% to 75% yield rates, 18A is competitive and capable of producing chips for Intel's own products (Panther Lake) as well as serving foundry customers. Microsoft has already placed firm 18A orders. Apple is reportedly talking to Intel about building processors in the US, which would likely rely on 18A. Yield rates are critical to foundry business success. Customers commit years of chip designs based on the expected yield performance at the start of the contract.

Why Would Microsoft and Apple Consider Intel as a Foundry Partner Over TSMC?

Microsoft and Apple already enjoy full access to TSMC foundry capacity, through existing supply relationships, so the question of Intel 18A's competitiveness comes into play in a specific manner:

Microsoft's and Apple's evaluation of Intel 18A for their foundry services reflects interest in:

• (1) supply chain diversification (no reliance on single provider)
• (2) the ability to design and manufacture chips within the US, which may have export control and supply chain security considerations
• (3) ensuring a viable alternative to TSMC as capacity for the world's top foundry gets allocated largely to AI chips and related projects. (Apple, in particular, is an extremely sensitive customer on 18A yield rate and performance, given the precision of the iPhone supply chain and the importance of production schedules.)

Is INTC a Buy at $117 After the EMA50 Breakout?

INTC broke out of the EMA50 ($110.63) on elevated volume. RSI is 51 to 61 and is neutral-bullish. There are no signs of a divergence and it appears that INTC is consolidating to make a long above the EMA50 at $110.63 and above.

Long at or above $118.50 for $123.80 and $134 and stop at $110.63

Fundamental analysis

In the Data Centre and AI business, Intel saw 22% growth to $5.1 billion and that is the company's growth opportunity. In the foundry business, 18A Panther Lake yields were 55% to 75%, Microsoft has 18A firm orders and Apple is said to be in discussions about using 18A. The above fundamental data points give the Intel turnaround narrative multiple levels of validation (not all tied to each other). 

One key risk that remains is that the foundry business still loses money and that the primary risk is execution timeline on yield improvements continuing at the pace needed to convert design wins into volume production.

Bottom Line

The Intel turnaround thesis has two legs: (1) Internal products in the data centre and AI growing 22%, and (2) external validation of 18A foundry competitiveness through Microsoft's confirmed orders and Apple's discussions of 18A as a foundry alternative. The 55% to 75% yield rate on 18A Panther Lake chips is the technical foundation for both legs.

With INTC now trading at $116.96 and clearing the EMA50 at $110.63 on elevated volume, while RSI trades at neutral-bullish (51 to 61) with no signs of a divergence, the setup is good for buying INTC. Trade above $118.50 for $123.80 and $134 with a stop at $110.63.

The foundry business continues to make a loss and the execution variable is whether 18A yield improvements continue at the pace needed to convert design wins into volume production. This will determine whether Microsoft and Apple turn their evaluations of 18A into volume orders.