Eurozone: Inflation sparks ECB rate repricing – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.5% year-on-year in March 2026, mainly on higher energy costs, while food and core pressures stayed moderate. She highlights that markets now price in European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes this year, with a tightening move possible in late-2Q or early-3Q if elevated energy prices persist.

ECB tightening risks rise with energy

"Eurozone inflation rose to 2.5% year-on-year in March 2026, up from 1.9% in February, according to preliminary data."

"Much of the headline increase was spurred by energy inflation rising 4.9% yoy (pump price was up ~15% in Mar), breaking away from successive disinflationary prints in the past year."

"Outside of energy, pressures are benign with food and core moderating, which point to benign second round effects."

"While the ECB’s guidance at the March meeting was balanced, the council had said that they were “closely monitoring” spillover risks from geopolitical tensions as against February’s “inflation stabilises at its 2% target”, setting the stage for caution and a potential hawkish pivot in the upcoming meetings if risk scenarios materialise."

"Markets are pricing in the possibility of rate hikes within the year, suggesting that the ECB is expected to front run the US Fed in tightening policy."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)