US Dollar Index Price Forecast: DXY bulls seem uncommitted below 23.6% Fibo., near 101.75

• DXY attracts some buyers on Wednesday, though it lacks bullish conviction.
• Geopolitical risks and Fed hike bets act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD.
• The technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, edges higher on Wednesday, recovering further from a near three-week low touched the previous day. The index sticks to modest intraday gains near the 101.75-101.80 region through the early European session, though it lacks bullish conviction.

Mixed signals over US-Iran peace talks keep the geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). In fact, an unconfirmed report said on Tuesday that Qatar and Pakistan had offered a middle-ground plan to the US and Iran that met the demands of both sides. However, Bloomberg later reported that a diplomat involved in US-Iran negotiations disputed news suggesting that a deal was close.

Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remains supportive of elevated oil prices, fueling inflation risks and bolstering hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in around a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. This turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the DXY and favors bullish traders.

From a technical perspective, the near-term tone is neutral to slightly positive as the index holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers around the zero line with flat histogram readings, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.57 hints at a lack of directional conviction, reinforcing the view of consolidative conditions.

Hence, a sustained move back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 101.90 is needed to confirm that the recent corrective decline from the highest level since April 2025 has run its course and position for further gains. The DXY might then climb to a stronger hurdle at the cycle high anchor near 102.92.

On the downside, initial support emerges around the 38.2% retracement and the 200-period EMA confluence at 101.25, while deeper levels are seen at the 50.0% retracement at 100.76 and the 61.8% retracement at 100.25, ahead of the 78.6% level at 99.52 and the prior swing low around 98.59.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

DXY 4-hour chart