US Dollar Index flat lines above 98.00 amid Hormuz tensions
- US Dollar Index holds steady around 98.20 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump said the US will help vessels exit the Strait.
- Traders brace for the US employment report for April, which is due on Friday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 98.20 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY steadies as traders continue to assess geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump said the US will begin guiding some neutral ships trapped in the Persian Gulf out through the Strait of Hormuz beginning Monday. Bloomberg reported that US Navy ships will stay nearby if needed to stop the Iranian military from attacking commercial vessels in the Strait.
An Iranian official warned that US interference in Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, adding that the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are not a place for rhetoric. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Middle East conflict and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Any signs of escalating tensions could lift the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency.
All eyes will be on the US employment report for April, which is due later on Friday. The US economy is expected to see 73K job additions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.3% during the same period. If the report shows a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could drag the DXY lower in the near term.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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