Missile Defense to 25-Minute Flights, Dan Held Explains Why SpaceX Will Hit $100 Trillion

Early Bitcoin investor Dan Held says SpaceX could reach a $100 trillion valuation within two decades. He points to falling launch costs opening markets in missile defense, satellite internet and rocket travel.

His bull case rests on one number, the cost of sending a kilogram of cargo to orbit. Historically about $20,000 during the Space Shuttle era, Held says that figure could fall to $10 under Starship.

Betting on Starship

Held made the case on The Rollup, a crypto and macro podcast. He also said he sold most of his stake in cryptocurrency exchange Kraken to invest in SpaceX five years ago.

He compared the bet to his early conviction in Bitcoin (BTC). Held has studied the asset’s fixed 21 million supply since 2012.

Starlink, missile defense and orbital data centers

Held pointed to Starlink as an early proof point. He said it is not simply a fiber alternative. In contrast, it is scaling into a business that could rival telecom carriers, not just internet providers.

Meanwhile, he also linked the technology to missile defense. Detecting rocket launches from orbit could let the U.S. intercept threats with little warning. He compared the idea to the Golden Dome missile shield concept.

Other use cases include orbital data centers, which trade higher launch costs for near-zero operating costs. Held also cited point-to-point travel, which could cut a New York-to-Tokyo flight to 25 minutes.

Therefore, Held said the total addressable market for space infrastructure could eventually exceed global economic output.

A $10 trillion milestone

Held predicted SpaceX’s valuation could reach $10 trillion within three years if Starship production keeps scaling. He expects $100 trillion by the time he reaches his late fifties.

Other prominent investors share the conviction. Cathie Wood recently called SpaceX her favorite stock and predicted it could become the most important company in history.

However, SpaceX shares have been volatile since going public, falling 35% from their peak despite joining the Nasdaq-100.

Elon Musk’s own long-term revenue targets have also run years ahead of Wall Street’s estimates, underscoring how uncertain multi-decade forecasts remain.