Prediction Markets and Casinos Are Both Betting Big on Washington

Kalshi spent $990,000 on federal lobbying in the first half of 2026, nearly matching its total for all of last year, as it races to counter the casino industry on Capitol Hill.

The prediction market operator and its gambling-sector rivals are both sharply raising spending. Kalshi’s direct lobbying alone nearly matches the American Gaming Association’s, signaling how hard each side is working to win over lawmakers.

The Prediction Market vs Gambling Lobbying Fight

Kalshi’s $990,000 closes in on the $1 million it spent across all of 2025. Including outside firms, its total nears $1.8 million, a record six-month figure disclosed in federal filings this week.

The company deploys seven lobbying firms, including its in-house team. It has hired former Biden and Obama administration officials to widen its reach. Kalshi also counts Donald Trump Jr. as a paid advisor.

Polymarket keeps a lighter presence. A single firm spent $180,000 on its behalf, pacing toward the $360,000 spent last year.

The gambling side is spending more, too. The American Gaming Association has committed $1.39 million in 2026, up 30% from the same period last year. The Cherokee Nation, which holds gaming interests, has spent $600,000.

Patrick McHenry, a former Republican congressman who now advises the Coalition for Prediction Markets, said the casino lobby has a structural head start.

“So much of the existing infrastructure of engagement on the Hill and at the states has been by the casino industry. The prediction markets are a new entrant into the policy debate in Washington, and are making great strides at communicating with lawmakers,” he said.

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Why the Two Sides Are Clashing

At the center of the tension is the rise of prediction markets and their growing pull on retail users. As these venues gain popularity, they are drawing bettors away from traditional sportsbooks.

That shift explains the gambling sector’s resistance. Operators view sports-event contracts as direct competition that bypasses state and tribal gaming rules.

The tension escalated in June, when the gambling industry pressed the Senate to ban sports contracts in the crypto market structure bill.

Prediction markets have also faced concerns about insider trading. Recent incidents highlight the scale of the problem. 

That activity has renewed scrutiny from lawmakers, many of whom have introduced bills to curb the practice. The platforms themselves have moved to counter the growing concern.

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