USD/JPY Price Forecast: Recovers further from one-month low; retakes 157.00 on firmer USD

• USD/JPY attracts some buyers in the vicinity of 156.00, or a one-month low set this Friday.
• A goodish USD bounce supports spot prices, though BoJ rate hike bets could cap the upside.
• The technical setup further warrants caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

The USD/JPY pair stages a goodish intraday bounce from the 156.00 neighborhood, or an over one-month low touched earlier this Friday, and sticks to modest gains through the early European session. Spot prices look to build on the momentum further beyond the 157.00 mark amid a broadly firmer US Dollar (USD), albeit seem poised to register heavy weekly losses.

Despite the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates unchanged next week, investors are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end amid oil-driven inflation risks. Moreover, escalating tensions in the Middle East keep the geopolitical risk premium in play and revive demand for the safe-haven USD, prompting some short-covering around the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, published earlier today, reaffirmed market bets for an imminent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Furthermore, traders remain on high alert amid speculation that any further depreciation in the Japanese Yen (JPY) could trigger direct currency intervention from authorities. This might cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair ahead of next week's key central bank events.

The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision at the end of a two-day monetary policy meeting on October 28, which will be followed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on October 29-30. Traders will also confront the release of the Advance US Q3 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due next Thursday, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below the 157.50 support – representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the September upswing and the lower boundary of a three-week-old trading range – was seen as a key trigger for bears. Adding to this, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 158.55 suggest that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator now shows the MACD line below its signal with both lines hovering near the zero mark and a slightly negative histogram, which suggests waning upside momentum. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.77 sits below the midline, reinforcing a corrective tone rather than a strongly trending move and suggesting that any subsequent move up could be sold into.

In the meantime, initial resistance is seen at the 23.60% retracement at 157.56, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 158.55, while a break above this cluster would expose the cycle high anchor near 158.98. On the downside, first support emerges at the 38.20% retracement at 156.68, followed by the 50.00% level at 155.98 and deeper Fibonacci supports at 155.27 and 154.26, with the 152.97 area marking the broader structural floor of the current swing.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY daily chart