Canadian Dollar: Remains slightly softer against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is effectively unchanged versus the US Dollar (USD) but outperforming peers, supported by firmer Oil and steady US-Canada front-end spreads. They see USD/CAD short-term tone as bullish, yet stress a significant resistance band in the low/mid-1.39s. Persistent core Consumer Price Index (CPI) pressures keep focus on Bank of Canada (BoC) normalization later this year.

Resistance zone caps upside

"The CAD is effectively unchanged against the USD on the session and a relative outperformer amongst its major currency peers as a result."

"Firmer crude oil prices are providing a little cover for the CAD, as are steady front-end US-Canada yield spreads. But the CAD will struggle to resist the broader trend in the USD into and around the FOMC decision regardless."

"Broadly in line with expectations Canadian CPI data yesterday did little for the CAD or for short-term rates but toasty underlying trends in core measures maintain the focus on price risks and the potential for the BoC to start normalizing still accommodative monetary policy later this year."

"Bullish—USD gains through the mid/upper-1.38s point to short-term USD strength extending a little more."

"We continue to note a significant resistance zone between the low/mid 1.39s, however, defined by trend resistance, the 40-and 100-day moving averages, retracement resistance, and the early September high. Initial USD support is 1.3825/30 and 1.3730/60."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)