SOL trades near $77 after a 16% weekly bounce, yet it remains about 74% below its record high. On-chain activity is climbing toward yearly highs as the price attempts to bottom.
The contrast sets up a decisive month for SOL. A bearish price structure on higher timeframes now collides with some of the strongest network readings Solana has posted this year.
Solana Network Activity Tests Yearly Highs
On-chain data paints a healthier picture than price alone suggests. The number of active addresses is rising sharply and retesting yearly highs just below 7 million.
Transactions per second, measured on a seven-day average, are trending steeply higher toward 1,100. That reading is approaching a new all-time high for network throughput.
This creates a clear divergence. Network activity continues to grow while the token price sits near its lowest level in more than a year.
Much of the recent surge in throughput stems from meme coin launchpads and speculative airdrops on Solana. Sustained usage above these levels would strengthen the fundamental case for a price recovery.
Weekly Chart Keeps SOL in a Bearish Range
The weekly chart tells a more cautious story. SOL sits roughly 74% under its all-time high of $293 and trades at its lowest level since December 2023.
Price is currently defending the long-term 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $73. That level marks the last major support before deeper downside opens up.
The first meaningful resistance sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci level around $120. A move back to that zone would require a gain of more than 55% from current prices.
Weekly volume continues to contract, which often signals accumulation and low volatility. However, the broader structure stays bearish until buyers reclaim higher levels. The recent leverage liquidations across the market underline how fragile sentiment remains.
Solana Price Prediction: $80 Line in the Sand
The daily chart offers the first signs of a possible bottom. SOL broke down from an ascending channel in June and hit its measured target near $63.
Price then bounced firmly off that support and now retests resistance just below $80. The Relative Strength Index has climbed toward 60, which indicates building momentum from buyers.
A daily close above $80 would strengthen the recovery case and open the path toward $100 and eventually $120. Failure to hold $73 would expose the $63 demand zone again.
The upcoming Alpenglow consensus upgrade could act as a catalyst if activation nears in the third quarter. Broader market weakness, seen in recent ETF outflows, remains the main risk. July now hinges on whether SOL can convert strong network fundamentals into a decisive break above $80.
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