SpaceX Will Give Investors Big News on Aug. 4. Here's What a $10,000 Investment Could Be Worth on Aug. 5.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), otherwise known as SpaceX, went public last month in the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever, sliding into the top 10 most valuable companies in the country. It briefly overtook Amazon after crossing $225 per share, up from its $135 IPO price tag, but even as SpaceX falls below that price, it remains the seventh-most-valuable company in the U.S., ahead of Meta Platforms.

Unfortunately for IPO investors, SpaceX stock is now 43% off its highs. Does that create a buying opportunity for new investors? The company will report second-quarter results on Aug. 4, its first earnings report as a public company. What makes this report unique is that, under the IPO's structure, insiders will be able to sell a portion of their shares two days after it's released.

Let's see how that might impact the stock and what a $10,000 investment might be worth the day after the report.

Image source: Getty Images.

What Wall Street wants from SpaceX stock

As an Elon Musk-led company with the largest IPO ever, by far, there's been significant hype around SpaceX. But at some point, the investment thesis has to touch reality, and it might be happening sooner than investors expected.

Until now, investors have had access to some of SpaceX's most recent financials through its investor prospectus. This earnings report will be its first test as a public company, where it will be evaluated on its progress. Wall Street is looking for $6.9 billion in revenue and a $0.28 loss per share, but it didn't provide the 2025 second-quarter results in the prospectus, so year-over-year comparisons will be revealed at the time of the report. The revenue figure would be a 47% increase over the first-quarter results, and the loss per share would be substantially better than the $1.27 in the first quarter.

What else is happening

Most IPO stocks have a six-month period when insiders are restricted from selling their shares, but SpaceX's restricted period is staggered, with the first phase ending on Aug. 6. According to the prospectus, up to 911.5 million shares are eligible to be sold on the second full day of trading after the report, with another 455.8 million more if the SpaceX stock price is higher than the IPO price for five out of the 10 days leading up to the report. As of now, being in the 10-day period, that isn't looking likely.

As the report's release gets closer, the stock continues to slide. If SpaceX stock beats expectations, it's likely to rise, and it could be the Musk superfans who drive the rally. If it mimics the stock's first day of trading, it will gain 19.6%, and a $10,000 SpaceX investment on Aug. 4 would be worth $11,960.

More likely, though, the stock could sell off even further as investors anticipate more shares coming to market, especially if results come in below expectations. If the stock falls as much as it did the first day it fell after the IPO, or 5%, a $10,000 investment would be worth $9,500. But if it plummets even further, and I anticipate it will, it could get a lot lower.

Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.