Is Bristol Myers Squibb's Dividend Too Good to Be True? Here's My Honest Answer

When dividend yields start to creep up, it's worth taking a closer look for any potential warning signs. Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) is a leading pharmaceutical company and has been a high-yield dividend stock for some time. Shares have averaged a dividend yield of 3.4% over the past decade.

However, that yield has been abnormally high for most of the past two years. The stock yields 4.1% today, and it's been as high as 6% over the past 24 months. Is the dividend simply too good to be true at this point?

My take is that the dividend is fine right now, but that you'll also need to watch out for potential hurdles as key drugs lose patent exclusivity over the next few years.

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The financials back up Bristol Myers Squibb's juicy dividend for now

There's a famous expression that money talks. Examining the financials is the best way to check whether a company can actually afford its dividend. Bristol Myers Squibb pays a quarterly dividend totaling $2.52 per share for the year. Wall Street analysts estimate that it will earn $6.34 per share this year, enough to cover the dividend 2.5 times over.

If you're not satisfied, you can double-check this by looking at free cash flow, since dividends are technically a cash expense. Bristol Myers Squibb has generated $5.83 per share in free cash flow over the past year, covering the dividend more than twice over. From a numbers standpoint, the company can genuinely afford its dividend, and quite easily. The near-term risk of a cut seems pretty low.

Keep an eye on how the drugmaker navigates a looming patent cliff

The coast isn't quite clear, though. Patents for some of Bristol Myers Squibb's top-selling drugs will expire over the next few years. As those patents expire, generics will flood the market at low prices, and sales for those branded drugs will crater. It's a normal part of a drug's lifecycle and happens all the time in the pharmaceutical business.

This situation is called a patent cliff, and Bristol Myers Squibb faces a pretty steep one. Eliquis and Opdivo could both face generic competition by 2028 -- and the two drugs combined for over $6.1 billion in sales last year, roughly half of the company's total revenue. Not all is lost, though: Even after the patents expire, branded sales won't go to zero overnight. Additionally, the company has a strong pipeline, and its growth portfolio of newer drugs is steadily taking the baton.

The market perceives Bristol Myers Squibb as a riskier stock these days, and that's not necessarily wrong. Fortunately, the dividend has lots of breathing room, and there's growth from newer drugs on the way. I could see management scaling back dividend growth, perhaps issuing smaller raises to conserve cash while the company navigates these sensitive years. But barring catastrophic failure, I think you can reasonably trust the stock's 4.1% yield now and in the future.

Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bristol Myers Squibb. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.