This Top Investment Firm Says the Crypto Market Is Nearing a Bottom. Here's What It Could Mean for Coinbase.

Investment firm William Blair recently cut its estimates for Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. Interestingly, it also reiterated an outperform rating for Coinbase, suggested that clients stay invested, and advised that the crypto market could be near its bottom.

Coinbase stock has plummeted over the last year, from an all-time high of $445 on July 17, 2025, to $157 as of July 17, 2026. Here are the details on William Blair's analysis and whether this is a good buying opportunity for Coinbase.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

William Blair's outlook on Coinbase and the crypto market

William Blair reduced annual revenue estimates for Coinbase by 12% in 2026 and 13% in 2027. It also cut its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) estimates by 34% for both years, and it expects Coinbase's trading volume to fall 44% to $669 billion in 2026.

These predictions make sense when you consider Coinbase's dependence on the crypto market and how the bear market has already affected it. Coinbase reported revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 2026, a 31% year-over-year decrease. The crypto exchange also had a net loss of $394 million that quarter, compared to net income of $66 million in Q1 2025.

As a crypto exchange, Coinbase makes a large portion of its revenue (54% in Q1 2026) from transaction fees. During bear markets, enthusiasm for crypto fades, fewer people want to buy, and trading activity drops.

William Blair remains bullish on Coinbase for a few reasons. It believes that the crypto bear market is close to a bottom with Bitcoin prices stabilizing, and that trading volumes will rebound by 32% in 2027. The firm also sees the current situation much differently than the lengthy bear market that started in 2022, with Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, and the regulatory environment all potentially helping the market recover more quickly.

Although Coinbase makes money from trading fees, it has developed additional revenue streams. It now offers tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), prediction markets, and retail derivatives, all of which could make it a more resilient investment.

Is Coinbase a buy?

This could be a good buy-the-dip opportunity for Coinbase stock, although I'd take a cautious approach. While Coinbase has branched out, trading fees are still its bread and butter. It'll likely continue to perform best during bull markets when investors are excited about cryptocurrency and trading activity is high. During bear markets, it will probably keep underperforming.

When the crypto market rebounds, Coinbase should rise with it, but there's no way to be sure when that will happen. Previous bear markets have lasted for years, so investors should take predictions that we're near the bottom with a grain of salt. The safest approach is to keep your crypto allocation, including cryptocurrencies and crypto stocks, to a small portion of your investment portfolio.

Lyle Daly has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool recommends Coinbase Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.