SpaceX vs. the Last 5 Biggest IPOs in History. How Did Those Stocks Perform a Year Later?

Two notable trends continue to bolster the capital markets landscape.

Of course, investor appetite for businesses in artificial intelligence (AI) remains robust. The view is that this is a groundbreaking technology that will have a meaningful impact on the economy.

Additionally, the market is captivated by anything Elon Musk is working on. His grand visions drive excitement.

These factors created the perfect backdrop for the most anticipated initial public offering (IPO) ever. On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public. It raised $86 billion, after underwriters exercised their greenshoe option. The company currently sports a massive $2 trillion market capitalization. And the stock has traded 13% up from its opening price (as of July 9).

The hype is hard to overstate. But how will SpaceX's shares perform over the 12-month period following its IPO? Investors can try to glean insights by looking at the five largest previous deals.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

A wide range of industries

The five largest IPOs prior to SpaceX are ranked by the amount of capital raised. The list includes Saudi Arabian Oil ($26 billion raised in 2019), Alibaba Group ($22 billion in 2014), SoftBank Corp. (not the investment holding company) ($21 billion in 2018), NTT DoCoMo ($18 billion in 1998), and Visa ($18 billion in 2008). Investors will notice that these deals come from different industries. Whether it's energy, technology, communication services, or financial services, no single sector dominates.

Their subsequent 12-month performances are a mixed bag. Saudi Aramco shares were down by a single-digit percentage. Alibaba's stock price tanked 30%. SoftBank's shares were up about 10%. NTT Mobile soared 68%. And Visa's stock was essentially flat one year later.

These figures are all over the place. It's telling that these companies were able to raise such massive amounts of capital. However, the timing of their IPOs, as well as their competitive positions, management teams, and financial performance, all weighed on their respective stocks' performances.

Based on these volatile numbers, investors can't come to a definitive conclusion about where SpaceX shares will be trading 12 months after its IPO. It's really a toss-up at this point.

Sky-high valuation creates significant downside risk

History isn't guaranteed to repeat, of course. But these huge IPOs do provide investors with a clear lesson in regard to the blockbuster public market entrance from Elon Musk's enterprise. SpaceX, whose $86 billion capital raise is more than three times the next largest, could see its stock price surge over the next year. It could also fall precipitously.

Investors shouldn't focus on the next 12 months, though. Anything can happen, as a time frame this short is heavily dependent on shifting market sentiment. This is unpredictable. No one has any clue where the stock will be in June 2027.

The best perspective to have is a long-term view. The smartest investors are asking where SpaceX could be in five years and beyond. Even after investors adopt a longer time horizon, the company's future remains extremely uncertain.

SpaceX does possess some notable positive traits. For starters, its vertically integrated business model has reduced launch costs, giving the company a big advantage. SpaceX commands more than 80% of the commercial launch market, according to research from The Motley Fool, as its launch cost per kilogram has fallen significantly over time.

Starlink is a successful endeavor, providing internet access to 10.3 million consumer subscribers (as of March 31) around the world. During the first three months of 2026, the connectivity segment (mostly made up of Starlink) generated $1.2 billion of operating income on $3.3 billion in revenue.

Valuation introduces a huge headwind, however. The stock trades at more than 51 times consensus analyst estimates for 2026 revenue. This is an astronomical price tag that bakes in a gargantuan earnings stream at some point in the future.

To say that SpaceX needs to execute flawlessly in the coming years would be an understatement. Not only that, but the ultimate goal of developing cheap interplanetary travel and establishing a civilization on Mars might not even be possible.

This space stock is best avoided. However, there are certainly bold investors out there who will continue to buy Elon Musk-led businesses.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Visa. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.