Prediction markets are transforming into aggressive derivatives platforms

World, a Chainlink-powered prediction market launched in the Phantom wallet on Solana on July 1, said recently that it is moving to Robinhood Chain.

The move shifts the project from Solana’s crypto-focused users to Robinhood’s roughly 28 million customers, prompting some users to accuse it of using Solana to gain attention before leaving. 

After more than two years of teasers, the concept debuted in Phantom, a well-known Solana wallet. It allowed players to wager on the price of Bitcoin and the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with rewards issued in Phantom’s CASH stablecoin and results validated by Chainlink.

The initiative closed after seven days, citing “careful deliberation in the last 24 hours.”

The announcement gave no reason for the shutdown, mentioned no technical issues, and did not explain what would happen to open bets.

The move was unexpected, as World had recently said it planned to expand into markets for economic data, elections, and major sports leagues in the coming weeks.

Why Robinhood makes more sense

Robinhood appears to be the more likely reason for the move.

The brokerage has already launched tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs for European users and plans to move them from Arbitrum to Robinhood Chain.

Robinhood reported 27.4 million funded customer accounts in the first quarter of 2026, giving World access to a much larger base of retail investors.

Chainlink is also part of Robinhood Chain’s infrastructure, allowing World to keep its existing settlement system.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev has also shown users how to move funds from Solana to Robinhood Chain by bridging USDC and swapping it for the network’s Paxos-backed USDG stablecoin. 

Polymarket and Kalshi push into new territory

Meanwhile, larger prediction markets are expanding their offerings.

Polymarket has applied to offer margin trading in the U.S., which would allow users to fund only part of a wager.

National Futures Association records show that PM Derivatives LLC filed applications on July 3 for futures commission merchant status, NFA membership, and swap firm registration on behalf of Polymarket-linked entity Coming Home GBA LLC.

The company would still need approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before launching margin trading. 

That would move Polymarket beyond simple yes-or-no markets and closer to a leveraged trading platform. Adding borrowed funds would increase both potential gains and losses for everyday users. 

The move also intensifies competition with Kalshi, which is further ahead in the U.S.

Kalshi’s affiliate, Kinetic Markets LLC, received National Futures Association approval as a futures commission merchant and swap firm in March.

Both platforms reported record trading volumes in June, with Kalshi reaching $33 billion and Polymarket, including its U.S. platform, nearing $14 billion. Both also launched crypto perpetual futures earlier this year.

Polymarket’s U.S. expansion has faced challenges. The company is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is also facing a lawsuit over its marketing, though its margin trading application signals it plans to keep expanding.

Additionally, Kalshi is branching out into conventional markets in addition to cryptocurrency.

The company is collaborating with regulators to create never-expiring futures linked to gold, foreign exchange, and energy, Chief Risk Officer Udesh Jha told Reuters.

In addition to institutional investors, retail traders account for a sizable portion of Kalshi’s user base, hence he claimed that gold is a top focus.

Kalshi would be in direct rivalry with the world’s biggest derivatives exchange, CME Group, as a result of that development.

Due to the CFTC’s decision to let Kalshi and Coinbase to offer perpetual futures, CME has already filed a lawsuit against the organization and its chairman, Michael Selig.

The decision is a “disaster waiting to happen,” according to Terry Duffy, the departing CEO of CME, who cautioned that retail traders might not fully understand the risks.

If Kalshi’s growth is permitted, it will directly compete with major exchanges such as CME, Nasdaq, Cboe, and Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange. According to reports, the corporation plans to go public between late 2027 and early 2028.

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