Did a New Perpetual Futures Deal Just Make Robinhood a Screaming Buy?

On July 1, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) launched its new Layer-2 blockchain, Robinhood Chain. Its Robinhood Wallet also began routing perpetual futures -- leveraged crypto derivatives with no expiration date -- through Lighter (CRYPTO: LIT), a decentralized crypto exchange that launched last December. Lighter's token spiked on the news as did Robinhood's stock.

So is Robinhood a screaming buy now that it has a platform for handling one of the most popular types of derivatives right now?

This deal is going to be big for both parties

Robinhood Ventures backed Lighter's $68 million fundraise last November, and now it's reaping the upside. Robinhood Wallet users in eligible jurisdictions can now trade perpetual futures contracts on Lighter's network without leaving the app and without needing to withdraw their assets to use as collateral on another platform.

Robinhood stands to earn revenue from its Wallet routing arrangement with Lighter, though the exact split hasn't been disclosed. In Q1 2026, it brought in nearly $1.1 billion in revenue, up 15% year over year. And in the 30-day period ended July 6, global decentralized perpetuals trading volume was $448.1 billion, according to data from Coinperps. That volume is more than the cumulative total volume of decentralized perpetuals trading just over two years ago, so the segment is growing extremely quickly.

On the same day as the launch of Robinhood's new chain, Lighter also rewrote its tokenomics to be more favorable to holders. About 15.5 million LIT tokens purchased through buybacks by the network -- about 6.3% of its circulating supply -- will now be burned and eliminated, as will tokens in future buybacks. That doesn't make Robinhood's stock a better investment directly, though it could be part of an investment thesis for buying Lighter after this news.

Image source: Getty Images.

What's the best move?

Now, let's turn to the question of whether Robinhood is a screaming buy.

The market for perpetuals is expanding quickly enough to be a significant source of growth, as Robinhood can probably market the contracts to its vast trader base of 13.5 million monthly active users without incurring much additional spending.

It's questionable whether most of those users will want to consistently trade perpetuals, as they're highly risky and can result in the total liquidation of investors' starting capital. Some people, however, probably will become regular traders anyway, chasing the high returns that the contracts can purportedly offer under the right conditions. Even so, the business will be constrained in how much in additional fees it can capture from its new arrangement with Lighter.

The reason for that is the decentralized perpetuals market is highly competitive, and getting even more so. If one of Lighter's direct competitors, like the decentralized exchange Aster, or the perpetuals market's largest player, Hyperliquid, offers a lower fee structure for traders, activity could migrate to them instead of staying within Robinhood's ecosystem.

Robinhood's entry into the perpetuals market is very likely to be a tailwind for the stock and for the value of Lighter's token, too. This is an addition to the bull thesis, and an elaboration of the platform's goal to be a one-stop shop for all retail investor trading activity, a goal that has been in progress for years and which has delivered great growth to the business and its shareholders.

But because of intense competition in the perpetuals market as well as the company's high valuation, it isn't reasonable to expect the stock to explode in value. This is a step forward for Robinhood, but it's an incremental one, which means you don't need to rush to buy the stock even if it's worth owning.

Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Hyperliquid. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.