Analysts Go All-In on SpaceX as the Quiet Period Ends. Here's What a $10,000 Investment Could Be Worth in One Year, According to Wall Street

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), aka SpaceX, seized the spotlight well before its initial public offering (IPO) early last month. The rocket launch, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence (AI) company has captured the public imagination as the company awaits several key hurdles in the coming weeks and months.

The first of these hurdles happened on Tuesday, as SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq-100. Perhaps as importantly, the mandatory quiet period ended for the 23 investment banks associated with the SpaceX IPO. This kicked off a surge of new analyst ratings and the associated commentary -- and to say the overall consensus was bullish might well be an understatement.

Let's review the prevailing attitude on Wall Street and what a $10,000 investment in SpaceX might be worth in one year.

Image source: Getty Images.

The bulls outnumber the bears

SpaceX closed out the day at about $160 per share on Monday, but Wall Street expects the stock price to go much higher. According to TheFly.com, 19 analysts issued ratings and price targets on Tuesday morning (as of this writing), and the overall conclusion was extremely bullish. Nearly all of the 19 ratings came in at the equivalent of a buy or strong buy, and had a median price target of $250. For those keeping score at home, that represents potential upside of 56% compared to Monday's closing price.

That said, the price targets run the gamut, with the lowest at $131 and the highest at $800. The majority of the ratings -- or 14 of the 19 -- fall within a range of between $200 and $250, representing an average price target of $225, or potential upside of about 40%.

A bearish take

MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu was the sole outlier on Tuesday, initiating coverage with a neutral (hold) rating and a price target of $131, which suggests potential downside for investors of 18%.

The analyst takes exception to CEO Elon Musk's plans to launch data centers capable of delivering 100 gigawatts (GW) of compute annually by the end of 2029. That total is "an amount that exceeds global in‑service data‑center capacity today and for which sufficient material inputs will not exist in three‑and‑a‑half years," according to the analyst. Zhu goes on to say that there's "simply no credible financial model that can support what is, at the time of this writing, a roughly $2 trillion valuation."

If the analyst is right, a $10,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth as little as $8,733 over the coming year.

A really bullish take

On the other end of the spectrum is Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale, who initiated coverage with a strong buy rating and a Street-high price target of $800. That suggests potential upside of 398% compared to Monday's closing price.

The analyst hailed the intersection of orbital access and AI as driving "the most significant infrastructure convergence since the advent of the Internet." He believes the completion of Starship -- the company's next-generation super heavy rocket -- will reduce the cost of space travel and delivering objects into orbit by 99%, while simultaneously increasing payload "by an order of magnitude.” The analyst estimates that SpaceX will grow its revenue 21-fold to $837 billion and its EBITDA by 39x to $696 billion by 2031.

If the analyst's bullish take is correct, a $10,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth nearly $40,000 this time next year.

What this means for investors

So what will a $10,000 SpaceX investment be worth next year? The truth is that no one can say with any certainty. However, throwing out the outliers returns a consensus stock price of about $225, which I believe is likely closer to reality than the most bullish or bearish takes from Wall Street.

A look at the 30 biggest IPOs of the past 15 years suggests a wide range of possible outcomes by the end of the year, with gains of up to 217% or losses of up to 77%. This could turn a $10,000 investment into as much as $31,700, or as little as $2,300.

To be clear, SpaceX stock has already given investors a sneak peek at the volatility they can expect over the coming year, so the stock won't be for the faint of heart. Furthermore, at 46 times forward sales, SpaceX isn't cheap. For investors who are still compelled to own a stake in SpaceX, I would suggest it be a small part of a well-balanced portfolio.

Danny Vena, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.