Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock Forecast 2026: Can It Recover From $100 After Authorizing Bitcoin Sales?

TradingKey - Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR) is trading at $101.96, sitting inside a descending channel on the 4H timeframe since the company issued a game-changing announcement on June 29th: the board approved a Digital Credit Capital Framework which, for the first time in the history of Strategy, authorizes a $1.25 billion Bitcoin Monetization Program for selective sales of Bitcoin.

It also approves a $1 billion stock buyback for MSTR Class A common shares, a $1 billion buyback program for Digital Credit Securities (consisting primarily of STRC preferred stock), an increase in the STRC dividend to 12% from 11.5%, and the USD Reserve Policy, which reserves $2.55 billion in cash along with the potential $1.25 billion from monetizing BTC for a $3.8 billion liquidity buffer.

Strategy currently holds 847,363 bitcoin which cost a total of $64.10 billion, averaging $75,651 per BTC. Bitcoin currently trades at near $60,000, putting the difference between the average BTC cost and current price of around $8.9 billion.

The Bitcoin Monetization Program: What ‘Authorized’ Actually Means

The new Digital Credit Capital Framework permits the sale of up to 20,800 BTC, or approximately 2.5% of Strategy's total Bitcoin holdings, but it does not signify the company is selling BTC. Instead, it will provide flexibility for Management to monetize approximately 2.5% of Strategy's Bitcoin holdings to enhance the balance sheet or provide additional sources of liquidity in support of its future capital requirements. While this move marks a change in Strategy's capital management, it does not mean Strategy is abandoning its long-term strategy and focus on accumulating and holding Bitcoin.

Over the past several years, Strategy funded most of its Bitcoin purchases through stock issuance when the company's stock traded at a significant premium to its Bitcoin. Now, as the premium has shrunk, issuing new shares at a discount will result in more dilution. This framework provides an additional alternative.

Capital Is Flowing Both Ways with $2 Billion in Buybacks and an Increase in the Preferred Dividend

The $1 billion buyback of MSTR Class A common shares and $1 billion buyback of the Digital Credit Securities directly address the two investor anxieties that have kept the stock pressured since the June 25 announcement of the Rosen Law probe. The Class A buyback is simple: at $101 per share, Strategy is repurchasing stock at a level that signals a compressed mNAV, suggesting that the company's management believes its shares are a bargain relative to their bitcoin content, even at a 1x NAV premium.

Meanwhile, the Digital Credit Securities repurchase, specifically buying back STRC at a discount to its $100 par value, aims to correct the preferred equity tier. Additionally, increasing the STRC dividend rate from 11.5% to 12% for all record dates on or after July 1 directly improves the yield and encourages buyers to step up to the $100 par level.

The USD Reserve Policy answers the key concern of the preferred shareholders raised by the Rosen investigation: is Strategy capable of meeting its payments if bitcoin stays flat? It is: Strategy has committed to maintain $2.55 billion in liquid assets and has secured the right to monetize $1.25 billion of its bitcoin holdings to cover a total of $3.8 billion for the preferred dividends and debt service obligations. That $3.8 billion reserve would be enough to cover several years of preferred dividends and interest on the outstanding borrowings at today's dividend and interest rates. Strategy has already set aside $1.4 billion to the reserve in December, 2025 and is adding the $1.25 billion worth of bitcoin to that liquidity buffer.

MSTR Technical Setup — Channel Consolidation at $101, RSI 59.37, Target $130.10

On the 4H timeframe MSTR at 101.96 is now consolidating at the blue channel as shown below on the daily timeframe, where recent green candles have been trying out the top of the channel while failing repeatedly to close above the descending trendlines. RSI is at 59.37, neutral and able to move up, and there are no bearish divergences at play.

Strategy Inc (MSTR) Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The 108.48 to 111.39 level should be taken out and followed up with a close over 108.50, which would open the way for a target at 130.10 on a breakout of the channel, while a close under 97.30, the lower boundary of the channel, would open the way down to 81.50 to 66.33.

• Entry: Long at a close over 108.50, upper channel boundary cleared
• Target: $130.10, channel breakout extension
• Stop Loss: A close below $97.30, lower channel boundary
• BTC Position: 847,363 at an average cost of $75,651 (Total cost = $64.10B). With BTC at ~$60K, MSTR is showing a paper loss of ~$8.9B.
• New framework: New $1.25B of BTC monetization capability authorized; $2 billion of total buyback announced; STRC dividend hike to 12%.
• Consensus Price Targets: $321 (Strong Buy) on average from 14 analysts = 219% upside from the current price level.

Why Did Strategy Inc Authorise Selling Bitcoin for the First Time?

The board at Strategy Inc. has approved a $1.25 billion Bitcoin monetization program, starting as of June 29, because the mNAV premium, how much MSTR trades over its bitcoin net asset value, has dropped to near 1x from historical 2x to 3x levels. When the premium is so compressed, the strategy is actually dilutive, not accretive, for BTC per share to issue stock to buy more BTC. This authorisation gives MSTR the option to sell up to about 20,800 BTC, or approximately 2.5% of the entire stack if it becomes necessary. In this case the option is to sell BTC instead of diluting shareholders by issuing equity at current levels. It isn't an abandonment of the bitcoin treasury strategy, just an adaptation of the capital structure. Nothing has been sold.

What Does the $3.8 Billion Liquidity Buffer Mean for Preferred Holders?

Strategy's USD Reserve Policy has a specific reserve in place to pay preferred dividends and interest on debt: The policy puts 2.55 billion dollars of cash and equivalents, as well as the BTC monetization of $1.25 billion as a total of $3.8 billion in the liquidity buffer. This is intended to alleviate Rosen Law's concern from its investigation that began on June 25, as to whether Strategy would be able to continue servicing preferred payments if BTC stays below its average cost of $75,651. The $3.8 billion covers multiple years of obligations at current rates without requiring bitcoin price recovery or new equity issuance. The liquidity buffer provides a cushion to pay these obligations many years in advance, and requires no BTC price recovery or share issuance. At the same time, Strategy raised the STRC preferred dividend from 11.5% to 12% and is undertaking a $1 billion STRC buyback at discount to par prices, to repair the preferred stack.

Is MSTR a Buy at $101 or Will It Fall Further?

At a price of $101 MSTR is at 1x NAV, where 847,363 BTC are held. The average 14 analyst target is $321, implying a 219% upside if the mNAV premium expands again. The bull thesis holds that the new capital structure, buybacks, BTC monetization optionality and preferred stack repair, keeps the discount in check and allows for the premium to expand with BTC moving higher. 

The bear view holds that BTC stays below or at 60,000 dollars, the compression of the mNAV moves to below 1x, and the 8.9 billion dollar loss in paper value continues to grow. The lower band in technical analysis is at 97.30 dollars and this is the level that Strategy would need to defend against a technical failure. A break below this level would point to 81.50 dollars as the next stop.

Bottom Line

Strategy Inc. in its new capital framework issued one of the largest policy changes since Saylor began his BTC accumulation in 2020, authorizing a BTC monetization program of up to 1.25 billion dollars that allows for some BTC sales to be undertaken when the mNAV is compressed and making direct bitcoin sales the less dilutive alternative to equity issuance at current prices. In addition to 2 billion in buybacks, the 3.8 billion dollars in the liquidity buffer and a STRC dividend raise to 12%, the Digital Credit Capital Framework aims to stabilize the preferred stack and shore up the floor of common equity.

BTC is held at 847,363 coins with 8.9 billion dollar unrealized loss in market value, while the Rosen investigation serves as the bear case. RSI at 59.37 is neither overbought or oversold, but has room to go higher. A breakout above 108.50 dollars would put a 130.10 dollar target on the table, while a drop below 97.30 dollars would trigger a stop.