Buy SpaceX Stock Before It Soars, Says Wall Street. A $10,000 Investment Could Be Worth This Much in a Year.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12. It was the largest IPO (initial public offering) in history by two metrics: The company raised a record $75 billion, and its market value was a record $1.7 trillion at the IPO price of $135 per share.

As of June 30, SpaceX trades at $170 per share, about 26% above its IPO price and 16% below its post-IPO peak. But Wall Street thinks the stock is undervalued. Among 11 analysts following the company, SpaceX has a median target price is $227 per share, implying 33% upside from its current price.

If the Wall Street consensus is correct, $10,000 invested in SpaceX today would be worth about $13,300 by July 2027. But history says the stock could plunge in the coming months. Here's what investors should know.

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX values its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion

SpaceX is best known for its reusable rockets and satellite-based broadband, but the company actually breaks its business into three operating segments: space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Those segments are discussed briefly below:

• Space: Revenue comes from launch and mission services. SpaceX has a competitive advantage in cost efficiency. Its Falcon 9 rocket lowered the cost to reach orbit by 85% compared to the historical average, and the next-generation Starship will reduce costs by 99%.
• Connectivity: Revenue comes from satellite-based broadband internet and mobile services. SpaceX operates the world's largest satellite constellation (Starlink) as measured by subscribers and orbital satellites.
• Artificial Intelligence: Revenue comes from infrastructure and application services. SpaceX subsidiary xAI operates massive data centers that collectively form a supercomputer called Colossus, which itself is the largest AI training cluster in the world.

In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX's revenue increased 15% to $4.7 billion. Connectivity services accounted for 70% of total sales, while the space and AI segments each contributed about 15%. However, SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.3 trillion. That was a much steeper loss than $528 million in the same quarter last year, primarily due to soaring R&D costs in the AI segment.

Going forward, SpaceX is arguably the company best positioned to build and deploy orbital data centers (i.e., space-based data centers) due to vertical integration that spans rockets, satellites, and AI. CEO Elon Musk says orbital data centers are the only logical way to scale AI compute in the long run, as abundant solar energy and cold temperatures could overcome the power and cooling constraints that limit terrestrial data centers.

With that in mind, SpaceX values its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion. That figure includes $370 billion from the space segment and $1.6 trillion from the connectivity segment, but the company attributes the remaining $26.5 trillion to the AI segment.

SpaceX is twice as expensive as the most richly valued stock in the S&P 500

SpaceX is undoubtedly an interesting company with lofty ambitions, but that doesn't necessarily make it a smart investment. Prospective investors trying to determine whether SpaceX belongs in their portfolios should consider two massive headwinds:

1. Stocks that go public with large market values have historically performed poorly. Among the 15 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006 (by market value at the IPO price), the average stock fell 50% at some point during the first year. The average stock also finished the first year 33% below its IPO price, according to data from First Trust and Bloomberg.
2. SpaceX's sales totaled $19.3 billion over the last four quarters, and its market value is currently $2.3 trillion. Those numbers bring its price-to-sales (PS) ratio to 114. That is an absurdly expensive valuation that very few companies have ever achieved.

For context, Palantir Technologies is currently the most richly valued stock in the S&P 500 at 54 times sales. SpaceX is literally twice as expensive. Meanwhile, SpaceX is also growing much more slowly. Palantir reported revenue growth of 85% in the first quarter, while SpaceX reported revenue growth of 15%.

Here's my honest opinion: Investors should avoid SpaceX right now. Wall Street's median target price may prove accurate, but large IPO stocks have typically crashed during their first year of trading in public markets. That outcome is especially likely with SpaceX given its incredibly expensive valuation.

Trevor Jennewine has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.