Japanese Yen gains as oil prices fall after US-Iran strike pause
- USD/JPY drops as lower oil prices boost the Yen after the US and Iran paused strikes.
- Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi’s approval rating fell in July to a term low, weighed down by rising living costs.
- US military caution and depleted interceptor supplies help curb further escalation with Iran for now.
USD/JPY remains subdued for the second successive day, trading around 163.60 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) receives support from lower oil prices after the United States (US) decision to refrain from striking Iran over the weekend, paired with Tehran suspending its own retaliatory strikes. Japan remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports, making its economy particularly sensitive to supply disruptions and swings in crude prices.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s approval rating fell in July to its lowest point since she took office last year, driven by rising living costs. The slump intensifies pressure on Takaichi, whose expansionary economic policies have driven up bond yields and pushed the Yen to four-decade lows, according to a Yomiuri newspaper report on Sunday.
The USD/JPY pair loses ground as the US Dollar (USD) falls as risk aversion eases on the brief US-Iran pause, which came after 13 days of escalating conflict. However, market participants remain cautious about potential supply disruptions as Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen claimed responsibility for attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities along the Red Sea.
Reports suggest that the US halted strikes amid growing concerns over depleting interceptor supplies and a shortage of remaining targets within Iran. Additionally, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly cautioned President Trump on Friday that continuing the campaign would severely strain critical munitions reserves.
On the policy front, the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday before resuming rate hikes in September, though a minority of market participants still anticipate a surprise move at this week's meeting. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also expected to hold rates on Friday.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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