Kalshi traders give only a 25% chance Coinbase's Q2 volume tops $170 billion

With the cryptocurrency exchange scheduled to report data on July 30, traders on prediction market platforms are wagering that Coinbase’s trading volume in the second quarter fell significantly below projections.

Part of the reason the bets are getting attention is that the platforms that handle them have expanded significantly in the last 12 months.

In April 2026, the total trade volume on Kalshi and Polymarket reached $24 billion, almost five times more than it had been less than a year before.

Traders on Kalshi believe that Coinbase’s trading activity was impacted by the roughly 12% drop in Bitcoin’s price during the second quarter.

It is anticipated that the exchange will announce a third consecutive quarterly decline in volume.

There is a good chance that the total would fall below $200 billion, which would be the lowest amount the corporation has reported since the third quarter of 2024.

The prices of Kalshi’s contracts spell out just how cautious sentiment has become. Traders put a 41% probability on Coinbase’s quarterly volume clearing $160 billion.

According to FactSet, the likelihood of it exceeding $170 billion is merely 25%, which is already below Wall Street’s consensus forecast of $168.5 billion.

However, there is a 99% chance that volume will remain above $150 billion, so bettors are not pricing in a complete collapse. Kalshi determines how these contracts settle using information from the investing research site Fiscal.ai.

The stock of Coinbase hasn’t fared any better. Since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, shares have dropped more than 55%.

This decline is consistent with the general pressure that has built up throughout the cryptocurrency markets during that time.

World Cup drives a surge in new users

The growing use of prediction markets to price in financial results is happening alongside a sharp growth period for both of the industry’s leading platforms.

According to CBS Sports, their best picks for prediction markets 2026 include Kalshi at number one, while Polymarket at number two, with DraftKings and FanDuel Predicts following after.

Both have added large numbers of users in recent months, helped in part by high-profile events that brought them in front of audiences who had never used prediction markets before.

Three million new users joined Kalshi during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The amount traded in a single contract on which nation will win the title exceeded $1.2 billion, setting a record for any one market on the platform.

The total amount spent on Kalshi during the World Cup was $12 billion. In addition to promoting Luka Modric, José Mourinho, Lionel Messi, Timothée Chalamet, and J Balvin, the platform partnered with OpenAI to show current contract odds within ChatGPT.

The strategy, according to Tarek Mansour, CEO and co-founder of Kalshi, is “where the news is at.”

Now that the World Cup is over, the platform’s problem is how to retain those new users when nothing of a similar magnitude is scheduled.

Political volume and the regulatory divide

In the world of political betting, Polymarket is still in the lead.

The site generates about $507 million in weekly political bets, accounting for an estimated 93% of all political prediction market transactions.

In contrast, Kalshi registers a weekly political volume of roughly $16.8 million. Politics accounts for 32% of Polymarket’s total activity, but only 4% of Kalshi’s.

Within Polymarket, the business is divided between two very different operations.

Its offshore platform generated $9 billion in volume during April 2026. The US-regulated version of the platform brought in $1.3 billion in the same period.

For traders who wish to use prediction markets to hedge positions around outcomes from established firms like Coinbase, that separation has significant ramifications.

The CFTC is currently looking investigating Polymarket for potential insider trading in contracts related to geopolitical events.

Institutional traders have a legally valid way to take positions on company earnings and volume expectations in real time thanks to Kalshi, a local, licensed business.

The outcome could also serve as another test of whether prediction markets are becoming a reliable barometer for corporate earnings expectations.

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