JPMorgan predicting $4,500 gold price in fourth quarter, quotes weaker demand

JPMorgan expects gold prices to trade sideways in the coming weeks before climbing to $4,500 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank is recalibrating its short-term outlook due to reduced demand from key buying sectors.

The Wall Street bank projects an average price of $4,300/oz during the third quarter, rising to $4,500 in Q4, according to a Reuters report. JPMorgan still sees gold heading higher, just not as fast as it previously expected.

Recalibration due to weakening demand

JPMorgan’s analysis states that purchasing power has reduced among gold’s major demand centers, with gold also becoming more sensitive to shifts in real interest rates.

These changes have made gold less attractive compared to other assets for investment, which then puts a ceiling on the prices that could be attained in the short-term.

The bank has also characterized the current price situation as “range-bound,” according to Binance News. This means that traders should expect sideways price action before any second-half recovery takes hold.

JPMorgan believes longer-term forecasts are still valid

JPMorgan’s medium-to-long-term view remains firmly positive, and the bank has noted three structural forces that all but guarantee that gold will keep rising into 2027.

Central banks around the world are still accumulating gold reserves at an increased pace. In addition, physical demand for the precious metal is expected to continue to strengthen over the next months. Lastly, institutional investors continue to allocate tangible portions of their portfolios to gold for hedging purposes, a pattern that shows no sign of reversing.

JPMorgan expects that these factors will sustain gold’s role as both a safe-haven asset and a reserve currency alternative, even if short-term price action disappoints retail traders.

Gold and Bitcoin have traded as competing macro hedges throughout 2025 and into 2026. JPMorgan’s report on expecting a “range-bound” gold price could potentially shift some institutional capital toward the crypto market in the short term.

However, the bank’s long-term bullish stance means gold will not stop being an important store of value any time soon.

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