Euro: Range trading with downside risks against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has slipped after testing 1.1460, with increasing downward momentum but major support at 1.1360 seen as difficult to reach near term. For the coming 1–3 weeks, they expect EUR/USD to remain in a 1.1360–1.1450 range. On a multi‑week view, a break of the 1.1390/1.1410 support zone would target 1.1210.

Euro seen confined in set band

"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose to a high of 1.1449 last Thursday. When it was at 1.1430 on Friday, we highlighted the following: “The slight increase in upward momentum suggests EUR may retest 1.1450. A continued rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 1.1420; a breach of 1.1405 would mean that the prevailing mild upward pressure has eased.” We were not wrong, as EUR rose to 1.1460 and then dropped back down to 1.1410. EUR closed at 1.1413, but it opened with a slight gap down this morning. While the increasing downward momentum suggests EUR could decline further, the major support at 1.1360 could be out of reach. Note that there is another support level at 1.1375. To sustain the downward momentum, EUR must hold below 1.1420, with minor resistance at 1.1405."

"Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (09 Jul, spot at 1.1420), when we highlighted that EUR “has likely moved back into a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.1360 and 1.1450.” After EUR rose to 1.1449, we highlighted on Friday that “although EUR subsequently rose to 1.1449, there has been no clear increase in upward momentum.” We also highlighted that “looking ahead, with momentum remaining flat, a break above 1.1450 is likely to result in a broader trading range rather than a sustained move higher.” Although EUR subsequently rose above 1.1450 with a high of 1.1460, it retreated from the high. The price action still appears to be part of a range-trading phase, and for the time being, we continue to expect EUR to trade between 1.1360 and 1.1450"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)