EUR/GBP softens below 0.8750 as BoE hints at a slower pace for future cuts
- EUR/GBP declines to near 0.8720 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The BoE delivered a rate cut in December but signaled caution, supporting the Pound Sterling.
- ECB kept interest rates unchanged earlier this month and hinted that they are likely to remain unchanged in 2026.
The EUR/GBP cross softens to around 0.8720 during the early European session on Wednesday. A cautious tone surrounding the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy outlook could provide some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Euro (EUR). Trading volumes are expected to remain thin ahead of the New Year holidays.
The UK central bank reduced interest rates from 4.0% to 3.75% at its December policy meeting, the lowest level in nearly three years. Governor Andrew Bailey said during the press conference that rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path, but "how much further we go becomes a closer call" with each cut.
Money markets expect the BoE to deliver at least one rate reduction in the first half of the year and are pricing in nearly a 50% probability of a second cut before the year-end, according to Reuters.
The European Central Bank (ECB), however, kept rates unchanged and its outlook suggested less urgency for further cuts, which might help limit the EUR’s losses. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted a data-dependent, "meeting-by-meeting" approach. She added that the central bank is not pre-committing to any future rate path, though some economists anticipate the rates to remain steady through 2026.
On the other hand, heightened geopolitical uncertainty in Ukraine could weigh on the Euro. Russia accused Ukraine of launching a drone strike on the Russian presidential residence in northern Russia, prompting Moscow to reconsider its stance in peace negotiations, per Reuters. Ukraine dismissed Russian statements about the drone attack, and its foreign minister said Moscow was seeking "false justifications" for further strikes against its neighbor.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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