USD/CAD trades flat near 1.3950 ahead of Canada’s employment data
- USD/CAD flattens around 1.3950 as investors await the Canadian labor market data for November.
- The Canadian Unemployment Rate is expected to have accelerated to 7%.
- Investors are confident that the Fed will cut interest rates on Wednesday.
The USD/CAD pair trades in a tight range around 1.3950 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The Loonie pair wobbles inside Thursday’s trading range as investors await the Canadian labour market data for November, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
Investors will pay close attention to the Canadian employment data to get cues about whether the Bank of Canada (BoC) will extend its monetary easing campaign.
The Canadian employment report is expected to show that there were no fresh hiring and lay-offs, following the creation of 66.6K jobs in October. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in higher at 7% from the prior release of 6.9%.
Signs of weakening Canadian job market conditions would prompt the need of an interest rate cut by the BoC in its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously amid firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in its monetary policy meeting next week. At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, strives to hold its fresh five-week low around 98.75 posted on Thursday.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December policy meeting is 87%.
Firm Fed dovish speculation is backed by deteriorating United States (US) labor market conditions, and expectations that inflation-driven by President Donald Trump’s promoted tariff policy is not persistent in nature.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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