GBP/USD steady near 1.3100 amid US holiday-shortened trading week
- GBP/USD remains trapped near the 1.3100 handle as momentum slows.
- US PPI inflation data is due on Tuesday, but the datapoint has key exceptions.
- Markets are staring down the barrel of a slow, holiday-shortened week.
GBP/USD lost momentum on Monday, holding near 1.3100 as investors grapple with an extremely short week. US markets will be dark on Thursday for the American Thanksgiving holiday, and US markets will also be shuttered early on Friday, effectively constraining Cable traders to just a three-day trading week where markets on both sides of the Atlantic will be open at the same time.
Broad market hopes for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliver a third straight interest rate cut in December are holding on the high side on Monday. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders are pricing in nearly 80% odds of a 25-basis-point rate trim on December 10. There’s still plenty of wiggle room, however, with over 98% odds that the Fed will deliver another rate cut by January 28 if a December cut fails to materialize.
Thanks to the longest US government shutdown in history, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has delayed the release of October and November labor and employment data until after the Fed’s interest rate decision. It will hold the key figures back until December 16. This leaves the Fed with little meaningful data to gauge interest rate moves, and it could vex hopes of a rate cut in the coming weeks.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) data due Tuesday could attract more market attention than usual. Still, the well-defined inflation category specifically excludes foreign-made or imported goods. It will provide little direct information on how the Trump administration’s scattershot tariff policies are affecting business costs beyond indirect price impacts.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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